DTN Early Word Grains 09/24 06:10
DTN Early Word Grains 09/24 06:10 Grains Ease to Finish Week December corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel, November soybeans are down 3 cents, and December KC wheat is down 3 1/2 cents. Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst Pre-6 a.m. CDT prices, CME Globex: December corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel, November soybeans are down 3 cents, and December KC wheat is down 3 1/2 cents. CME Globex Recap: Equity markets are weaker overnight with U.S. futures looking to close the week on a lower note. Energy futures are higher overnight with crude oil solidly back above the $73.00 mark heading into the weekend. The U.S. Dollar Index is firmer, holding together after the big reversal posted Thursday. Metals markets are mostly firmer with gold and copper higher while silver paces with small losses. Grain markets are weaker across the board early Friday morning as early gains in the overnight session are relinquished. This should be a big harvest weekend across the Midwest which could bring with it plenty of pre-hedging before final settlements. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 506.50 at 34,764.82 and the S&P 500 up 53.34 at 4,395.64 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 1.41%. Early Friday, the December DJIA futures are down 97 points. Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 609.41 (2.06%) and China's Shanghai Composite down 29.15 points (-0.8%). European markets are lower with London's FTSE 100 down 14.59 points (-0.21%), Germany's DAX down 109.91 points (-0.7%) and France's CAC 40 down 59.86 points (-0.89%). The December Euro is down 0.001 at 1.180 and the December U.S. dollar index is up 0.130 at 93.160. The December 30-Year T-Bond is up 1/32nds, while December gold is up $6.80 at $1,756.60 and November crude oil is up $0.05 at $73.35. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were up 1.67% while soybean meal was up 0.58%.
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 09/24 06:44
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 09/24 06:44 Mixed Trade Ahead of the Reports Strong gains in the financial markets Thursday provided some support to the livestock complex. Most of the trading activity was the result of traders looking ahead to the reports to be released Friday. Robin Schmahl DTN Contributing Analyst Cattle: Steady Futures: Higher Live Equiv: $224.56 -1.21* Hogs: Steady Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $111.51 -2.63** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.) ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: Cattle futures closed mixed, but higher in most contracts. Price strength during the day gave way as traders decided to even up positions before the final trading day ahead of the Cattle on Feed report. Cash cattle trading in line with Wednesday provided little to get excited about as cattle in the South traded steady with last week while the average trade in the North was $1.00 lower. There may be some cash traded Friday, but both packers and feedlots may wait for the results on the Cattle of Feed report to be released after the close of trading. The average trade estimate for on-feed numbers is 97.9% or 11.155 million head. In order for cattle to move higher and regain some of the losses since the previous report, on-feed numbers may need to be lower than anticipated on this report. Slowing demand and lower beef prices may offset some bullishness that could be seen from the numbers that will be released. Boxed beef continues to fall with choice cuts down $2.23 and select cuts down $0.51 Thursday.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/24 11:00
DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/24 11:00 Grain Futures Mixed at Midday Friday Corn is 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are narrowly mixed and wheat is 1 to 6 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 40 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.35 higher. Interest rate products are lower. Energies are firmer with crude up $0.30. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $3.00. CORN: Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower in quiet midday action Friday as harvest will continue to expand into the weekend as trade remains near short-term resistance levels. Ethanol margins will tighten a bit with natural gas prices firming again while driving demand moves sideways short term, limiting blender upside. South America will continue with early full-season corn planting with little weather concerns there so far. Corn basis will continue to fade to harvest continuing to push forward at a good clip. On the December contract, we have support at the fresh low at $4.97 while resistance is the 20-day at $5.25, which we are trying to hold above into the weekend. SOYBEANS: Soybeans are narrowly mixed at midday with range-bound action ongoing as well, with harvest pressure likely into the weekend. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 0.70 cent to 0.80 cent higher. Harvest should continue to expand with weather continuing to push maturity along with a broad yield trend emerging soon. Basis levels have been flat to weaker in recent days. South American planting will get more attention into the end of the month. On the November soybean chart, resistance is at the 20-day at $12.86, which we are just below with support at the recent low at $12.57 1/2. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 1 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade continuing to test the upper end of the range. The dollar is back near the highs in midday action as well. KC is 2 cents below Chicago in weaker action, with Minneapolis at a 192-cent premium in weaker action too. Weather in the Plains looks a little wetter short term as planting gets going with little fresh news on Southern Hemisphere weather so far. KC December on the chart has support at the 20-day at $7.07, with the upper Bollinger Band at $7.32 as resistance. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/24 11:55
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/24 11:55 Livestock Trade Mixed, Quiet Friday Livestock futures are mixed Friday morning with narrow to moderate trading ranges as traders adjust to previous market swings from the week. A report-heavy afternoon is in store for all livestock markets with Cattle on Feed and Hogs and Pigs reports released at 2 p.m. CDT. By Rick Kment, Contributing Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Morning activity has been generally quiet in livestock futures Friday, as traders focus on balancing previous market shifts with afternoon report expectations. This is the last chance for traders in cattle and hog markets to adjust to expectations ahead of the Cattle on Feed and Hogs and Pigs reports, both released after closing bell Friday afternoon. Early expectations are not pointing to any major changes from year ago levels, which has allowed markets to remain generally quiet Friday morning. December corn is down 3 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.00 per ton. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3 points with Nasdaq down 32 points. LIVE CATTLE: Moderate pressure in live cattle futures is seen Friday morning as traders adjust positions ahead of the weekend and upcoming Cattle on Feed report. Pre-report estimates point to a 1.9% drop in on-feed numbers from year ago levels. This estimate would account for 11.17 million head of cattle in feed yards (1,000 head or greater size) at the first of September. A total in this area would mean increased on-feed numbers from Aug. 1 and indicate the seasonal low has already been set. This could help focus market attention on breaking away from counter-seasonal market shifts seen during 2020 due to the COVID pandemic. The outlook for long-term supply tightness continues, but without a significantly lower on-feed number Friday afternoon, price levels are not likely to remain extremely bullish following the report. Cash cattle activity remains extremely quiet Friday morning with the bulk of business done Wednesday. There still may be some late-week clean-up trade, especially in the North during the day Friday. But unless significant changes are seen in the market in the next couple hours, the tone of the market appears to have already been set. Trade in the North on a dressed basis developed from $193 to $198 per cwt with most trade seen at $198 per cwt. This is generally $1 per cwt lower than last week's weighted average. Live trade in the South developed at $123 to $124 per cwt, which is steady with last week. Asking prices on cattle still left on showlists remain at $198 in the North and $124 live basis in the South. Friday morning's boxed beef prices are mixed in light trade, with choice cuts $1.31 lower at $304.29 and selects up $1.36 at $276.35 on a total count of 63 loads. Dow Jones estimated Friday's cattle slaughter at 116,000 -- 3,000 less than a week ago and 4,000 more than year ago levels. FEEDER CATTLE: Narrow losses have trickled into feeder cattle trade with the general tone extremely subdued in front of the Cattle on Feed report. Light to moderate pressure in corn and grain markets is limiting downside market shifts in feeder cattle compared to live cattle, although the move in outside markets is not enough to stimulate widespread buying at this point. Trade is likely to hover within a narrow range through the rest of the session, although the limited volume could still bring an outside chance of last-minute market swings just before closing bell. The focus on this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report continues to keep traders interested, although at this point most traders have already adjusted positions according to where they feel the report will lead the market in the near future. Trader estimates point to a 1% drop in placements during August compared to 2020. This estimate has the widest range of all Cattle on Feed categories, which could bring additional volatility to the market and less confidence in where report numbers will land. The CME Feeder Index was priced at $154.49 for Sept. 22. LEAN HOGS: Lean hog futures have quickly settled down following Thursday's aggressive triple-digit rally. Morning trade has held a sideways pattern with prices mixed in a narrow range from 20 cents lower to 25 cents higher at midday. The lack of significant shifts in the market is due to focus on limited trade direction in most commodities at the end of the week following what has been a very volatile week, driven by turbulent moves in the stock market. Traders continue to focus on the upcoming Hogs and Pigs report, which will be released at 2 p.m. CDT. The expectation overall hog numbers will see a 2% reduction from year-ago levels. A move in this range should not be a significant market mover as traders continue to focus on slightly lower hog herd sizes until the middle of 2022. Significant shifts in farrowing intentions through the end of the year will likely be an indicator of any sizable market adjustments in the near future. Cutouts are up $9.57 at $113.86 Friday morning on 258.15 loads. Negotiated hog prices are $0.21 higher at $76.93 per cwt on 2,780 head. The swine/pork market formula price is listed at $89.58 per cwt. Dow Jones estimated Friday's hog slaughter at 472,000 -- 1,000 less than a week ago, while 10,000 more than year ago levels. The CME Lean Hog Index is estimated at $91.47 for Sept. 23. Rick Kment can be reached kmentrick@gmail.com (c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
US Direct Feeder Pigs 09/03
DTN Closing Grain Comments 09/24 14:02
DTN Closing Grain Comments 09/24 14:02 Soybean Oil Leads Friday's Percentage Gains in Grains December soybean oil closed higher Friday, boasting the top percentage gain among grain-related contracts for Friday and for the week. Row crops were quietly mixed as fall harvest heads into an active weekend. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: December corn closed down 2 1/2 cents and March corn was down 2 1/2 cents. November soybeans closed up 3/4 cent and March soybeans were up 1/4 cent. December KC wheat closed down 1/4 cent, December Chicago wheat was up 6 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was up 4 1/2 cents. The December U.S. Dollar Index is trading up 0.30 at 93.33. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 4.38 points at 34,760.44. December gold is down $2.30 at $1,747.50, December silver is down $0.34 at $22.34 and December copper is up $0.0470. November crude oil is up $0.72 at $74.02, November heating oil is up $0.0167, November RBOB gasoline is up $0.0115 and November natural gas is up $0.169.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 09/24 15:30
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 09/24/21
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 69 WEEK TO DATE: 9,058
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
69 122.00-122.00 122.00-122.00 122.00
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 376 WEEK TO DATE: 27,002
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
376 193.00-193.00 193.00-193.00 193.00
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 4,145
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
Not available due to confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
Not available due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
Not available due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
Not available due to confidentiality
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 74 WEEK TO DATE: 13,448
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
74 194.00-194.00 194.00-194.00 194.00
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: Just a few scattered deals were reported today. The bulk
of this week's business took place on Wednesday, with a few cleanup deals
reported on Thursday and today. Northern dressed deals had a range of $191
to $198, mostly $196 to $198, roughly $1 to $3 lower than last week's
weighted average basis Nebraska. Some of these cattle were set for delivery
the weeks of October 4th or October 11th. Southern live deals were marked at
$122 to $124, mostly $123 to $124, about steady with last week's weighted
averages.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $122.78(1449) HIDE&OFFAL: $15.41 Unchg
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED $178.37 $152.48 50,402
BOX BASED $291.32 $262.53 52,769
AVE INDEX $234.85 -1.38 $207.50 -0.48 103,171
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$303.32 -2.28 $274.53 -0.46
49.15 LDS CH CUTS / 12.06 LDS SEL CUTS / 17.95 LDS TRIM / 25.02 LDS GROUND
DAILY CHOICE/SELECT SPREAD $28.79 TOTAL LOAD COUNT 104
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 09/17 $323.48 -7.47
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $232.67 -0.03
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 35.11 lds / Shrply lr on greater demand & offers
90% TRIM: 00 lds: Wtd Avg $No Test / Not fully established
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 110(587) WK AGO 118(593) YR AGO 113(596) MIX: THU SH88/CB26
SAT 54(641) WK AGO 64(657) YR AGO 59(655)
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 09/11/21 3,929 9,062
Week Ending: 09/04/21 3,162 8,788
Change from prev week: +760 +274
DTN Chart Technical Points 09/24 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 09/24 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 9/24/21 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT DEC 723.75 709.38 708.11 708.32 721.67 59.08 54.78 52.98 85 62 45 40 CBTWT MAR 734.75 720.06 718.94 719.47 732.36 58.99 54.79 53.20 85 60 44 39 KC WT DEC 719.75 709.06 709.72 706.07 709.12 57.39 55.13 54.59 78 55 56 56 KC WT MAR 727.75 717.69 718.42 715.01 717.77 56.95 54.87 54.56 77 55 56 55 MN WT DEC 916.00 904.69 901.31 897.56 900.36 61.82 58.17 57.49 83 66 62 57 MN WT MAR 902.75 892.13 889.22 886.00 888.31 61.81 58.19 57.56 82 65 64 59 CORN DEC 526.75 524.63 525.64 522.17 540.67 49.95 47.35 47.43 70 51 43 43 CORN MAR 534.50 532.38 533.25 530.50 548.54 49.74 47.13 47.35 70 50 43 43 CORN MAY 539.00 536.94 537.72 535.49 553.19 49.48 46.84 47.25 70 51 43 42 OATS DEC 575.25 561.44 547.39 524.31 495.91 73.76 71.69 69.16 81 67 78 76 OATS MAR 566.50 555.81 542.64 521.64 493.38 75.11 72.90 70.10 81 69 80 78 BEANS NOV1285.001281.501282.831282.741316.15 47.85 45.43 46.01 63 46 24 23 BEANS JAN1294.751290.811292.001291.691322.54 48.69 46.12 46.47 65 47 26 25 BEANS MAR1297.751294.441296.001296.581322.54 48.08 46.13 47.15 64 47 26 25 S MEAL OCT 336.10 337.13 337.47 337.90 347.02 40.07 40.59 42.57 33 35 20 21 S MEAL DEC 339.00 340.68 341.13 341.19 350.31 39.43 40.41 42.66 31 36 23 25 B OIL OCT 57.97 56.70 56.65 57.09 59.84 54.87 49.89 48.30 76 50 27 21 B OIL DEC 57.87 56.63 56.64 57.09 59.72 54.37 49.68 48.41 74 49 28 21 CATTLE OCT 122.93 122.97 123.26 123.94 126.75 38.11 39.02 43.51 60 48 19 19 CATTLE DEC 128.15 128.28 128.49 129.39 132.20 38.43 38.66 43.16 69 60 22 21 FEEDER SEP 154.63 154.79 154.99 156.34 160.58 35.61 37.06 43.20 45 49 20 20 FEEDER OCT 157.35 157.13 157.03 159.35 163.47 39.39 38.84 43.68 61 60 13 12 HOGS OCT 87.28 85.06 84.34 85.65 87.40 58.60 53.58 50.28 60 60 45 41 HOGS DEC 76.80 75.07 74.27 77.09 79.93 51.80 47.20 46.01 82 71 29 23 COTTON OCT 96.85 93.29 93.27 94.06 93.38 64.87 60.94 58.23 77 47 42 25 COTTON DEC 95.99 92.34 92.25 92.78 92.43 66.60 62.35 59.03 77 48 42 24 RICE NOV 13.90 13.87 13.79 13.57 13.63 67.81 63.00 56.63 87 88 92 90 RICE JAN 14.09 14.05 13.96 13.75 13.77 70.05 65.15 58.01 92 91 94 92
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 09/24 16:12
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 09/24 16:12 Larger Than Expected Cattle on Feed Numbers Cattle on feed totaled 11.23 million head Sept. 1. This is 1% below year-ago levels, but still well above pre-report estimates. Cattle on feed numbers are the second highest total since 1996. Total hog numbers fell 4% from year-ago levels, with reductions in all significant categories. By Rick Kment, DTN Contributing Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $0.13; December live cattle up $0.63; September feeder cattle off $0.25; October feeder cattle up $0.97; October lean hogs up $1.55; December lean hogs up $1.75
