DTN Closing Livestock Comment 02/01 15:40
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 02/01 15:40 Lower Tones Dominate Livestock Complex by Wednesday's Close Heading into Thursday, be prepared for export data and on the lookout for any developments in the cash market. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS The livestock complex traded lower throughout much of Wednesday's market as fears of what the Federal Reserve would do grew heavier on the market as the day traded. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.18 with a weighted average of $73.03 on 10,408 head. March corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 7.94 points.
DTN Chart Technical Points 02/01 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 02/01 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 2/01/23 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT MAR 759.75 755.88 745.92 743.58 754.41 58.49 53.10 47.54 78 80 52 39 CBTWT MAY 770.50 765.44 754.50 751.92 763.16 60.76 54.31 47.83 82 83 54 40 KC WT MAR 884.25 876.50 857.19 845.40 855.59 65.91 59.23 51.87 90 89 80 59 KC WT MAY 876.75 869.56 850.83 840.25 850.06 65.88 59.08 51.58 89 89 79 58 MN WT MAR 926.00 922.81 913.58 909.18 915.47 60.56 55.40 50.40 82 84 70 53 MN WT MAY 919.25 916.00 907.11 903.56 909.79 61.18 55.51 49.77 84 83 75 56 CORN MAR 681.00 681.88 678.25 672.88 663.93 58.21 57.26 54.42 62 74 83 75 CORN MAY 679.50 679.56 676.25 671.28 663.27 58.93 57.58 54.39 64 75 83 75 CORN JUL 668.00 666.63 664.47 661.18 656.14 57.71 56.00 53.09 63 69 72 65 OATS MAR 393.00 391.69 383.08 369.82 359.97 78.06 69.75 57.33 85 89 94 92 OATS MAY 386.50 385.63 376.56 364.72 356.71 77.72 69.30 56.60 89 92 96 93 BEANS MAR1520.251525.751512.691511.031491.51 53.76 54.57 54.80 81 83 72 57 BEANS MAY1516.501520.191507.501509.011494.17 53.77 54.14 54.32 83 85 64 48 BEANS JUL1508.001510.561498.641503.901494.20 52.72 52.87 53.44 85 86 54 37 S MEAL MAR 484.70 482.78 473.23 474.37 458.30 62.24 61.17 60.07 86 86 80 62 S MEAL MAY 469.40 467.30 459.02 459.46 448.81 62.86 61.03 59.43 88 87 82 62 B OIL MAR 60.79 61.27 61.26 62.22 63.37 39.81 41.08 44.35 65 54 20 13 B OIL MAY 61.03 61.47 61.41 62.16 62.92 41.31 42.53 45.46 68 58 22 15 CATTLE FEB 158.43 158.19 157.67 157.45 156.67 59.44 57.73 55.93 85 73 67 57 CATTLE APR 162.23 162.36 161.48 161.10 160.46 57.47 56.87 56.27 79 77 73 64 FEEDER MAR 183.25 184.20 183.47 183.64 184.49 47.17 47.63 48.89 56 71 49 45 FEEDER APR 187.95 188.46 187.87 188.01 188.33 49.16 49.34 50.27 64 69 49 46 HOGS FEB 73.98 74.97 76.24 77.57 82.83 19.03 26.23 35.74 7 12 3 4 HOGS APR 84.30 85.93 85.84 86.90 90.60 30.39 33.76 39.72 47 58 21 17 COTTON MAR 85.61 85.96 86.48 85.07 83.93 51.43 52.35 51.53 26 35 69 74 COTTON MAY 86.34 86.62 87.04 85.46 83.98 53.10 53.82 52.59 29 37 72 77 RICE MAR 17.84 18.03 18.13 18.04 17.86 40.60 45.54 49.30 13 39 67 73 RICE MAY 18.20 18.37 18.44 18.34 18.13 42.19 46.98 50.53 3 31 74 79
DTN Early Word Grains 02/03 05:42
DTN Early Word Grains 02/03 05:42 Wheat Prices Lower Early Friday With Rain in Extended Forecast March corn is down 3 cents, March soybeans are up 3 cents and March KC wheat is down 7 cents. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst EARLY MORNING GLOBEX NET CHANGES: March corn is down 3 cents, March soybeans are up 3 cents and March KC wheat is down 7 cents. CME GLOBEX RECAP: Early Friday, stock futures in the U.S. were trading lower after the Bank of England and European Central Bank each added half-percent increases of their own Thursday. Thursday's earnings reports from the big tech firms also reinforced ideas of slower economic activity ahead. At 7:30 a.m. CST, the U.S. Labor Department will release nonfarm payrolls for January and the monthly unemployment rate. Friday's earnings reports include Cigna and LyondellBasell Industries. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 39.02 at 34,053.94 and the S&P 500 up 60.55 at 4,179.76. The 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 3.40%, near the lowest yield in over four months. Early Friday, March Dow Jones futures are down 111 points. Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 index up 0.39% and China's Shanghai Composite Index down 0.68%. European markets are mostly lower with the spot futures of the London FTSE 100 trading up 0.26%, spot futures of Germany's DAX trading down 0.66% and spot futures of France's CAC Index trading down 0.26%. The March euro is up $0.0020 at $1.0954. The March U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.12 at 101.46. The March 30-year T-bond is down 1/32nd, while April gold is down $3.90 at $1,926.90 and March crude oil is up $0.25 at $76.13. On China's Dalian exchange, March corn was up 0.0%, March soybeans were down 1.2%, May soybean meal was down 0.3% and May soybean oil was down 0.7%. April Malaysian palm oil is trading up 2.5%.
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 02/03 06:17
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 02/03 06:17 Cattle Trade Pushed to End of Week The livestock complex pushed higher with all categories posting triple-digit gains Thursday. Live cattle traders anticipate higher cash to develop while feeder cattle reacted to lower corn prices. Hogs saw increased technical buying along with good export sales.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/03 10:39
DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/03 10:39 Grain Futures Seeing Red Midday Friday Corn trade is flat to 1 cent lower, beans are 6 to 8 cents lower and wheat trade is 6 to 10 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn trade is flat to 1 cent lower, beans are 6 to 8 cents lower and wheat trade is 6 to 10 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 75 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.80 higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude up $0.20 and natural gas off $0.08. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals weaker with gold down $50.00. CORN: Corn trade is flat to 1 cent lower at midday Friday with trade fading into nearby support levels and slightly weaker spread action as early day session strength fading once again. Ethanol margins have support from natural gas while blender margins tighten again with the recent fade in unleaded values, but spring blends will boost margins soon. Crop development will continue to be watched with drier weather short term in Argentina and early double crop planting in Brazil to expand rapidly in coming days. The daily export wire was silent for corn all week. Basis has stabilized in the west with above average action holding up overall. On the March chart, support is at the $6.73 20-day moving average, which we are testing at midday with the upper Bollinger Band at $6.93 the next round up, which we have faded from last week with a fresh high for the move being scored at $6.88 3/4, which we tested Thursday. SOYBEANS: Soybeans are 6 to 8 cents lower with expanding Brazil harvest and short-term dryness in Argentina while nearby U.S. demand appears to have slowed down a bit this week. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 higher and oil is 1.55 cents to 1.65 cents lower. The daily export wire saw 132,000 metric tons soybeans sold to unknown for new crop. Trade will be looking for the Brazil export pace to pick up soon as harvest expands further, while Argentina will be watched for further deterioration. Basis remains mostly sideways near term. March chart support is at the $15.13 20-day, which we remain solidly above, with the upper Bollinger Band at $15.49. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 6 to 10 cents lower at midday with KC the downside leader as trade once again tested resistance early in the session before fading, with spread trade remaining solid. The Southern Plains should show improvement temperature wise with the best rain shots for the eastern plains, and little change to the Europe and Black Sea situation short term. Matif wheat values are flat but holding up better than U.S. values so far. On the chart, KC March has support at the 20-day moving average at $8.48, which we are solidly above, with the recent high at $8.95 as resistance with the upper Bollinger Band at $8.92. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 02/03 11:38
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 02/03 11:38 Livestock Prices Slightly Higher Friday Morning Active futures contracts for live cattle, feeders and lean hogs were all trading slightly higher at midday Friday with April cattle still challenging new contract highs and April hogs possibly finding support. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: The Labor Department's report of stronger-than-expected job growth in January offered some more good news in a week that is already having bullish influence on cattle prices. LIVE CATTLE: Live cattle futures are slightly higher at midmorning Friday with the April contract up a nickel at $163.90, staying close to new high territory. This has been a week of bitter cold weather for cattle in the Northern Plains and as far south as Kansas. Even Friday morning's map shows subzero readings throughout Iowa and single digits in Kansas, one last extra shot of cold before readings start to warm this weekend and usher in a mostly warmer February. This week will also be remembered for Tuesday afternoon's inventory report, reporting the lowest U.S. cattle inventory since 2015 and the lowest number of beef cows on record going back over 50 years. Early Friday, the U.S. Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000 in January, much more than expected and showing that the economy is doing better than many in the business news have been worrying about. For the most part, beef demand remains active and the slaughter pace is humming along. Friday morning's report from USDA showed choice cuts down 20 cents at $264.90, down almost $3 on the week, so far. Selects were up 12 cents at $253.78, up over $3 from last Friday afternoon. Slaughter estimates have maintained an active pace this week and Dow Jones estimates Friday's cattle slaughter at 121,000, down 1,000 from a week ago. Saturday's slaughter is estimated at 30,000, up 3,000 from a week ago. Cash trade has been quiet this week and should get busy Friday afternoon. Emboldened by Tuesday's report and after every live cattle futures contract posted a new contract high Thursday, packers are likely to find a difficult market to bid into this week. FEEDER CATTLE: Just over a couple hours into Friday's trade, March feeder cattle are up 20 cents at $186.12, holding a modest gain for the week. March corn overcame a lower start and is now trading two cents higher, despite Thursday's 10-point increase in Argentina's good-to-excellent crop rating, now at 22%. Corn prices are on track, however, for a modestly lower close this week, offering slight help for feeder prices. As with live cattle, the influences on feeder prices have been mostly bullish this week. Stressful winter conditions throughout much of the western Plains, a historically bullish inventory report on Tuesday and good news on the jobs front on Friday morning offering a more promising outlook for beef demand. Overall, feeder cattle prices remain well-supported despite the strain of high feed costs. The National Weather Service shows increased chances for precipitation in the western Plains in the six- to 14-day period, but DTN meteorologists say the more beneficial amounts are likely to lean east. Increased precipitation in the western Plains, if it could happen, would provide helpful relief for many cattle producers. The CME Feeder Index posted $180.90 for Thursday, Feb. 2, up $1.33 from a week ago. LEAN HOGS: At midmorning Friday, April hog futures are trading a little higher, up 20 cents at $86.20 after a slightly lower start. Hog futures are still showing signs of support after Wednesday's venture to new low ground was quickly rejected Thursday. Thursday's report from USDA showed 30,900 mt of pork export sales with Mexico named the top buyer, not horrible, but not enough to explain the new buying interest in hogs. Thursday's new highs in live cattle futures likely helped, but the most bullish encouragement came from a bounce in the prices of negotiated hogs. Negotiated prices that briefly fallen below $70 in mid-January were quoted at $72.65 in Friday morning's national Daily Direct Hog report, a modest bump for the week and possible sign of support. USDA's morning pork report posted Friday's cutouts down $2.30 at $79.20, back near where price was a week ago and pressured by a $13.21 drop in bellies. USDA reported 156.57 loads of pork cuts and 17.69 loads of trim. Hog slaughter remains active and was estimated by Dow Jones at 486,00 for Friday, down 1,000 from last week. Saturday's slaughter is estimated at 161,000, up from 87,000 last week. CME's lean hog index was projected at $73.05 for Thursday, up 41 cents from a week ago. With this week's bounce in cash hog prices coinciding with a successful test of support in the futures market, the outlook for hog prices is showing signs of improvement. Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1 (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
US Direct Feeder Pigs 09/03
DTN Closing Grain Comments 02/03 13:53
DTN Closing Grain Comments 02/03 13:53 Wheat Can't Hold Gains in Volatile Trade, Bean Oil Falls with Crude In volatile and two-sided trade, wheat failed to hold early gains, while soybeans faded early with the plunge in bean oil, as crude oil has now fallen for five of the past six days. Soybean meal continued its winning ways, scoring yet another new contract high. Dana Mantini Senior Market Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: March corn closed up 2 1/4 cents per bushel and May corn was up 1 3/4 cents. March soybeans closed down 2 1/4 cents and May soybeans were down 2 1/4 cents. March KC wheat closed down 7 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 4 1/4 cents and March Minneapolis wheat was down 3 1/4 cents.
DTN Cattle Prices/Trends 02/03 14:45
DTN CATTLE PRICES/TRENDS 02/03 14:45 HEAD SOLD LIVE STEERS DRESSED LIVE HEIFERS DRESSED KANSAS . *157.00(BID) . *157.00(BID) . NEBRASKA 1,700 *155.00(BID) 250.00 *155.00(BID) 250.00 TEXAS . *157.00(BID) . *157.00(BID) . COLORADO . . . . . IOWA 1,000 159-160 *250.00(BID) 159-160 250.00 *PRIVATE SOURCES DTN COMMENTS: A light trade is beginning in the North this afternoon with dressed deals marked at $250, $2 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. The South continues to be locked in a standoff. Just who will blink first? Asking prices remain firm around $158 to $160 in the South, and $252-plus in the North. Today's slaughter totaled 122,000 head, 2,000 below last week, but 8,000 greater than a year ago. Saturday's kill is estimated at 19,000 head, bringing the weekly total to 641,000 head, 18,000 less than the prior week, but 6,000 above 2022. Cattle futures closed modestly to moderately higher on both live (up 17 to off 52) and feeder (up 17 to 62) contracts. Beef cutouts are expected to close mixed with light to moderate box movement. DAILY DIRECT SLAUGHTER CATTLE-NEGOTIATED PURCHASES-SUMMARY **Summary includes trade from 1:30 PM the previous day through 9:30 AM today.** KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES: 90 WEEK TO DATE: 90 STEERS - LIVE - FOB STEERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED No reportable trade No reportable trade STEERS - LIVE - DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED - FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade HEIFERS - LIVE - FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED No reportable trade No reportable trade HEIFERS - LIVE - DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED - FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES: 497 WEEK TO DATE: 497 STEERS - LIVE - FOB STEERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED No reportable trade No reportable trade STEERS - LIVE - DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED - FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade HEIFERS - LIVE - FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED No reportable trade 248.00 65-80 248.00-248.00 457 248.00 TOTAL 248.00-248.00 457 HEIFERS - LIVE - DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED - FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0 STEERS - LIVE - FOB STEERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED No reportable trade No reportable trade STEERS - LIVE - DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED - FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade HEIFERS - LIVE - FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED No reportable trade No reportable trade HEIFERS - LIVE - DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED - FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf STEERS - LIVE - FOB STEERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED NA Due to Confidentiality NA Due to Confidentiality STEERS - LIVE - DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED - FOB NA Due to Confidentiality NA Due to Confidentiality HEIFERS - LIVE - FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED NA Due to Confidentiality NA Due to Confidentiality HEIFERS - LIVE - DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED - FOB NA Due to Confidentiality NA Due to Confidentiality IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES: 2,493 WEEK TO DATE: 3,409 STEERS - LIVE - FOB STEERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED 154.39 80+ 154.00-155.00 1,093 248.00 80+ 248.00-248.00 279 154.39 TOTAL 154.00-155.00 1,093 248.00 TOTAL 248.00-248.00 279 STEERS - LIVE - DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED - FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade HEIFERS - LIVE - FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED 154.96 80+ 154.00-158.00 816 248.00 80+ 248.00-248.00 160 154.96 TOTAL 154.00-158.00 816 248.00 TOTAL 248.00-248.00 160 HEIFERS - LIVE - DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED - FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade NOTE: Feedlots are encouraged to call DTN with any cattle sales, at 1-800-369-7675, ext. 3678. All sales will be listed anonymously and organized by state. All live sales are FOB and set for 1-9-day delivery. A weekly summary from this data will be posted on the Weekly Cattle Sales Reported to DTN page.