DTN Early Word Grains 10/23 06:00
DTN Early Word Grains 10/23 06:00 Grains Closing Week Higher December corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel, November soybeans are up 3/4 cent, and December KC wheat is up 7 cents. Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst Pre-6 a.m. Globex Prices: December corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel, November soybeans are up 3/4 cent, and December KC wheat is up 7 cents. CME Globex Recap: Global equities were stronger overnight with U.S. futures also staring at a higher open Friday morning. House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin continued their stimulus-package talks Thursday with Speaker Pelosi saying they're "just about there." There is still uncertainty that Senate Majority Leader McConnel would allow a vote on a stimulus bill before the presidential elections, especially if he tries to get Supreme Court justice nominee Amy Coney Barrett approved on the Senate floor. The energy markets were stronger overnight, although natural gas is down over 2.0%. Grains were stronger overnight with gains being led by Kansas City and Chicago wheat after a couple day breather midweek. Corn futures are making new highs daily while soybean futures rest just below contract highs. There still does not seem to be a compelling enough reason to get sideways with the trend, and the trend remains up in the ag space. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 152.84 at 28,363.66 and the S&P 500 up 17.93 at 3,435.56 while the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 0.848%. Early Friday, the December DJIA futures are up 94 points. Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 42.32 (0.18%) and China's Shanghai Composite down 34.5 points (1.04%). European markets are higher with London's FTSE 100 up 85.43 points (1.48%), Germany's DAX up 130.01 points (1.04%) and France's CAC 40 down 65.82 points (1.36%). The December euro is up 0.002 at 1.190 and the December U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.234 at 92.730. The December 30-year T-Bond is down 10/32nds, while December gold is up $7.90 at $1,912.50 and December crude oil is up $0.23 at $40.87. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were up 0.32% while soybean meal was down 0.49%.
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 10/23 06:41
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 10/23 06:41 Hog Market Weakness Steals Attention From Cattle Complex Lean hog futures will have access to expanded trading limits of $4.50 per cwt lower as nearby contracts test support levels and appear to be retracting active support seen the month of October. Cattle market weakness is likely to redevelop ahead of the Cattle on Feed report.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/23 11:05
DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/23 11:05 Grains Mixed at Midday Corn is flat to 1 cents higher, soybeans are 3 to 5 cents lower, and wheat is 4 to 9 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 65. The dollar index is 7 points lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are flat with crude down $0.15. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are weaker with gold down $3.30. CORN Corn trade is flat to 1 cent higher at midday with steady spread action up front as we stay near the fresh highs. The export wire showed 100,000 metric tons sold to unknown. Ethanol margins remain under pressure with corn values elevated as ethanol retains its premium to unleaded. Basis will likely remain solid with rains slowing harvest along with the upfront demand. On the December contract resistance is the fresh high at $4.19 3/4 with support the 20-day at $3.92. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with light two-sided action so far with trade pulling back from the fresh highs scored earlier in the week with the export market quiet. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 lower and oil is flat to 10 points lower. Brazil should continue to make planting progress with the better rains short term, while Argentina continues to remain slow in moving soybeans to crushers. Basis remains strong as we continue to work to max out our logistics capacity to ship the needed export bushels. The export wire was quiet today. The November chart has resistance at the fresh high at 10.85 1/4 with support the 20-day at 10.43. WHEAT Wheat trade is 4 to 8 cents higher at midday with winter wheat trade leading as we try to find buying again after lower closes the last two days with firmer spread trade overall. The ruble action continues to favor Russia a bit in the export markets but their domestic prices are now elevated with growing winter kill concerns, along with too much rain in Australia as harvest starts. Middle East buyers are becoming more active with tenders as well. Kansas City is at a 65-cent discount to Chicago with spreads backing off the recent highs, while Minneapolis is back to 52 cent discount with very active spread action. Rains look to be more wide spread for U.S. growing areas over the next seven-10 days. Kansas City December chart resistance is the fresh high at $5.79 1/2, and support is the 20-day at $5.35. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2020 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/23 12:21
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/23 12:21
End-of-Week Slump Continues
A few contracts show small gains, but most live cattle, feeder cattle, and
lean hog futures contracts are moving lower at the middle of Friday's session.
Elaine Kub
Contributing Analyst
General Comments
A few nearby live cattle contracts are peeking into positive territory in
the middle of Friday's session, but overall, the tone of livestock trade
remains bearish with lower momentum carrying through from the past four
sessions and a big cattle-on-feed report expected. December corn is up 2 cents
per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.60 per ton. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is down 152 points and NASDAQ is down 42 points.
LIVE CATTLE
December live cattle are up $0.45 at $103.925, February live cattle are up
$0.225 at $107 and April live cattle are down $0.175 at $109.70. The trade
continues to look to Friday afternoon's Cattle on Feed numbers, which are
bearishly expected to show record-large October inventory in the range of 11.65
million head. Bear in mind, however, that while the raw October 1 number of
animals may be large, many of the new arrivals this fall have been coming off
of pastures notably light in weight, with extreme and exceptional drought still
reigning over Colorado and most of the western U.S. cattle country. Earlier
this week Northern dressed deals ranged from $163 to $165, which is mostly $3
to $4 lower than last week. Southern cattle have traded for mostly $106, which
is mostly $2 lower than last week.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.11 ($208.97) and select up $1.02
($192.10) with a movement of 75 loads (34.22 loads of choice, 6.94 loads of
select, 23.73 loads of trimmings, and 10.07 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
With the nearby corn futures contract hitting a fresh yearly high at $4.19
3/4 in intraday movement Friday, the conservative feeder cattle pricing at sale
barns and on the futures board will likely continue. The October contract, up
$0.175 at $134, has experimented with some small gains off and on through the
session, but deferred contracts portray the more overwhelming sense of
bearishness that has been true of feeder cattle contracts since Monday's slide.
The November contract is down $0.175 at $130.25 and the January 2021 contract
is down $0.125 at $126.075.
LEAN HOGS
There was virtually no question that hog futures contracts would be headed
toward a lower weekly close as the Friday trading session rounds out, and
although the December contract is up $0.75 at $66.95, deferred contracts are
indeed staying on their downward course. The February contract is down $0.125
at $66.725 and the April contract is down $0.35 at $69.35.
The projected lean log index for 10/22/2020 is down $0.06 at $78.54 and the
actual index for 10/21 is down $0.09 at $78.60. The National Direct Morning Hog
report was delayed Friday due to packer submission problems, but Thursday's
weighted average was $59.80 after a five-day rolling average of $60.31. Pork
cut-outs total 187.83 loads with 174.61 loads of pork cuts and 13.22 loads of
trim. Pork cut-out values: down $0.11, $98.73.
Elaine Kub can be reached elaine.m.kub@gmail.com
(c) Copyright 2020 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 10/23 13:52
DTN Closing Grain Comments 10/23 13:52 Grains Finish Higher Friday; More Demand Anticipated Active contracts of corn, soybeans and all three wheats closed higher Friday with strong demand expectations for corn and soybeans. Wheat prices also got help from the anticipation of sub-freezing temperatures coming to the Southern Plains this weekend.
US Direct Feeder Pigs 10/09
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 10/23 15:30
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 10/23/20
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 18,249
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 246 WEEK TO DATE: 28,687
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
246 163.00-163.00 163.00-163.00 163.00
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable dressed trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 15 WEEK TO DATE: 10,590
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
NA Due to Confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
NA Due to Confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 806 WEEK TO DATE: 19,698
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable dressed trade
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: Just a little cleanup trade today. The majority of this
week's Southern live trade was at $106, while Northern dressed biz was at
$165.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $104.49(1492) HIDE&OFFAL: $8.27 Unchg
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED $157.61 $143.50 75,724
BOX BASED $195.49 $179.40 61,394
AVE INDEX $176.55 -1.13 $161.45 -0.28 137,118
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$207.49 -1.37 $191.40 +0.32
83.72 LDS CH CUTS / 11.49 LDS SEL CUTS / 34.68 LDS TRIM / 17.92 LDS GROUND
BOXED BEEF TREND: Not available due to changes on USDA reports
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 10/16 $210.94 -3.88
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $163.31 +1.54
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 70.33 lds / Lower on light demand & heavy offerings
90% TRIM: 14 lds: Wtd Avg $195.87 / Sharply higher
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 103(583) WK AGO 116(592) YR AGO 109(581) MIX: THU SH95/CB25
SAT 60(643) WK AGO 62(654) YR AGO 59(640)
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 10/10/20 2,835 9,762
Week Ending: 10/03/20 1,488 8,457
Change from prev week: +1,347 +1,305
DTN Chart Technical Points 10/23 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 10/23 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 10/23/20 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT DEC 632.75 629.31 619.83 603.76 570.54 73.48 71.10 65.27 64 73 90 90 CBTWT MAR 632.50 629.88 620.72 606.61 576.46 73.16 70.74 65.01 67 76 91 91 KC WT DEC 569.75 567.69 557.44 541.14 501.49 71.40 70.21 65.44 60 74 91 91 KC WT MAR 576.50 574.88 565.17 549.40 511.21 71.17 69.94 65.19 60 74 91 91 MN WT DEC 577.50 578.06 565.58 552.65 542.38 71.78 68.45 62.08 71 82 89 90 MN WT MAR 587.00 587.25 576.58 564.72 554.66 70.02 67.10 61.40 67 80 89 90 CORN DEC 419.25 414.50 406.31 395.69 375.67 83.64 79.18 71.75 91 91 96 93 CORN MAR 420.25 417.13 410.64 402.21 384.27 81.98 77.46 70.34 88 90 96 94 CORN MAY 421.25 418.75 412.56 405.64 389.31 80.92 76.37 69.54 92 93 97 94 OATS DEC 303.50 302.75 296.53 292.51 281.66 73.54 68.84 62.50 91 94 97 90 OATS MAR 302.25 301.81 297.22 293.57 281.81 71.89 68.80 63.17 95 95 97 91 BEANS NOV1083.751073.381062.251049.651006.52 72.10 69.94 68.24 81 78 86 79 BEANS JAN1081.001072.131062.111050.601009.86 71.09 69.07 67.70 80 76 87 80 BEANS MAR1067.501059.501049.251038.171003.78 71.87 69.31 67.81 79 80 88 81 S MEAL DEC 386.40 379.88 372.43 363.08 337.54 76.73 73.90 70.18 78 80 91 89 S MEAL JAN 379.60 373.68 367.27 359.48 336.70 77.18 74.29 70.41 81 81 92 90 B OIL DEC 34.11 33.58 33.39 33.14 33.24 60.64 57.51 56.52 78 61 63 51 B OIL JAN 33.95 33.49 33.35 33.14 33.30 59.16 56.38 55.81 74 58 59 48 CATTLE OCT 103.35 103.61 105.62 107.33 106.83 21.90 30.29 42.69 9 11 7 18 CATTLE DEC 103.58 104.27 106.88 109.45 110.07 18.60 25.84 38.00 7 11 7 9 FEEDER OCT 133.52 134.06 136.04 137.60 139.79 22.65 29.21 39.20 31 32 17 20 FEEDER NOV 129.65 130.50 132.97 135.71 139.38 22.09 26.48 35.50 30 28 12 12 HOGS DEC 67.03 67.92 68.59 66.53 62.75 50.60 55.04 58.38 13 29 62 78 HOGS FEB 66.93 67.88 69.55 69.27 67.08 31.84 41.58 51.59 9 17 34 62 COTTON DEC 71.29 71.32 70.37 68.60 66.63 76.69 75.18 68.08 76 79 92 93 COTTON MAR 71.87 71.95 71.05 69.35 67.46 76.27 75.02 68.22 73 78 91 93 RICE NOV 12.35 12.25 12.33 12.44 12.38 48.06 48.86 51.15 21 19 48 54 RICE JAN 12.51 12.45 12.53 12.64 12.56 45.65 47.65 50.93 19 19 50 56
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 10/23 16:15
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 10/23 16:15 Feeder Prices Spooked By Higher Corn Some mixed results among livestock futures Friday couldn't outweigh the overall bearish movement of the market this week, capped by a bearish Cattle on Feed report. Elaine Kub Contributing Analyst The painful week of losses in both cattle and hog prices finally came to a close Friday, capped by a bearish Cattle on Feed report that showed inventory at 11.7 million head, up 4% year-over-year. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.27 with a weighted average of $59.55 on 5,161 head. December corn closed up 3 cents per bushel and December soybean meal closed up $4 per ton. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 28 points and NASDAQ is up 29 points.
