DTN Early Word Grains 06/18 05:56
DTN Early Word Grains 06/18 05:56 Grains Rally Back Following Thursday Lashing July corn is up 10 1/2 cents per bushel, July soybeans are up 56 cents, and July KC wheat is up 17 1/2 cents. Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst Pre-6 a.m. Globex Prices: July corn is up 10 1/2 cents per bushel, July soybeans are up 56 cents, and July KC wheat is up 17 1/2 cents. CME Globex Recap: Mixed equity trade overnight with U.S. futures flat to slightly higher. For the week-to-date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is off 3.3% which is on-track for its worst week since January. Investors have certainly had a shift in mentality following the two-day FOMC meeting earlier this week and a "taper tantrum" is probably an accurate description of the action since Wednesday. Energy markets are weaker overnight with crude oil almost $2 per barrel off its highest set Wednesday. The U.S. Dollar Index has been bid most of the week but has reversed slightly overnight. Metals are higher overnight, led by silver which is up 2.4%. Grain markets are all solidly higher overnight, led by the soy complex with soybean oil up 3-5%. Grains have been so incredibly volatile of late, it's hard to take anything off the table with respect to this Friday close. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 210.22 at 33,823.45 and the S&P 500 down 1.84 at 4,223.70 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 1.511%. Early Friday, the September DJIA futures are up 17 points. Asian markets are lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 54.25 (-0.19%) and China's Shanghai Composite down 0.51 points (-0.01%). European markets are lower with London's FTSE 100 down 31.44 points (-0.44%), Germany's DAX down 43.08 points (-0.27%) and France's CAC 40 up 8 points (0.12%). The September Euro is up 0.001 at 1.190 and the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.002 at 91.875. The September 30-Year T-Bond is up 12/32nds, while August gold is up $18.20 at $1,793.00 and July crude oil is down $0.22 at $70.82. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were down -2% while soybean meal was down -2.38% and corn was down -1.98%. Malaysian palm oil closed up 2.3%.
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 06/18 06:19
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 06/18 06:19 Grains Rebound, Will Livestock? Nearly everywhere you looked Thursday, liquidation was rampant. The weakness Thursday will be difficult to overcome in the coming days as traders will be hesitant to buy back into the market until some stability is seen. Robin Schmahl DTN Contributing Analyst Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $234.42 -1.98* Hogs: Lower Futures: Lower Lean Equiv: $131.55 +4.31** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.) ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: It was a blood bath in nearly the entire commodity complex Thursday. No matter where you looked, futures were substantially lower. But grains and lean hogs were exceptionally lower with corn and hogs limit down. Soybeans made a historic one-day drop as selling erupted. The decline of grain futures did nothing the stem the selling tide. Generally, cattle would have benefited from such a severe price decline. Only feeder cattle were able to close higher in the 2022 contracts. The culmination of a number of issues triggered liquidation that will be difficult to recover from. Cash cattle held Thursday at an average of $4.00 higher in the North and $2.00 higher in the South, which should have provided some support, but when technical selling gripped the market, nothing else mattered. China was the second largest buyer of feed on the weekly export sales report, but that was offset by lower sales. Boxed beef continues to fall with choice cuts down $3.92 and select cuts down $2.72. I think we can confidently say the top is in the boxed beef market.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/18 10:44
DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/18 10:44 Grain Futures Look to Head Into the Weekend Higher Corn is 13 to 14 cents higher up front and 23 to 25 cents higher on new crop; soybeans are 46 to 48 higher up front and 48 to 52 higher on new crop, and wheat is 14 to 20 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 470 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.50 higher. Interest rate products are mostly higher. Energies are firmer with crude up $0.90. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder cattle the weak link. Precious metals are mixed with gold flat. CORN: Corn trade is 13 to 14 cents higher up front, with the back months 23 to 25 cents higher and weaker spread trade as buying returns after Thursday's washout on short covering into the weekend and spillover from calmer trade elsewhere. Ethanol margins are seeing support from corn values sliding on the week, but concerns about blending rates will limit upside along with the energy complex flattening out. Brazil weather looks mostly unchanged short term as the crop advances towards harvest with some late rains. Meanwhile U.S. weather will be watched for consistency in the second week forecast with cooler weather expected for the most by Monday. Corn basis should remain flat to weaker near term with more attention going to new crop. On the July contract, trade is back below the 20-day at $6.65 with the late strength Thursday holding, with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.23. SOYBEANS: Soybeans are 46 to 48 cents higher up front, with new crop 48 to 52 cents higher and trade retracing about 50% of Thursday's action so far with slightly weaker spread trade and short covering in products. Meal is $4.50 to $5.50 higher and oil is 1.85 cents to 2.05 cents higher. The weather pattern should allow for short-term stress to give way to rains in the center of the belt with double-crop acres to go in as soon as wheat harvest moves along. South America should continue to see shipping progress short term, with U.S. basis soft with processors and exporters firming bids in spots after Thursday. On the July soybean chart, support is $13.23 1/2 lower from Thursday, with $14.00 the first level of resistance on the rebound. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 14 to 20 cents higher at midday with trade bouncing back along with the row crop with headwinds from the dollar and harvest likely to stay in place short term. The dollar is attempting to consolidate at over 91 points on the index post Fed, which will work to limit upside if sustained with more consistent action into the second half of the month. Warmer weather this week should help to bring winter wheat along after the slowdown last week with early harvest getting underway on the far Southern Plains. Other Northern Hemisphere weather will continue to be watched as well with little fresh news on the front with Russia mostly OK for now. KC continues at a 54-cent discount to Chicago widening a bit, with Minneapolis at a 107-cent premium. KC July on the chart has resistance the 20-day at $6.25 with support at the lower Bollinger Band at $5.91. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 06/18 11:39
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 06/18 11:39 Live Cattle, Lean Hogs Looking to Regain Positioning The entire livestock sector would be trading higher if the feeder cattle complex wasn't being pressured by the corn market. Just the live cattle and lean hog contracts are rallying into Friday afternoon. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: After Thursday's bearish afternoon close, the live cattle and lean hog contracts have jumped to Friday's arrival and are looking to resecure some of the position that Thursday gave up. The feeder cattle contracts are back to bowing down to the corn market, though, as corn prices are anywhere from $0.18 to $0.32 higher. July corn is up 19 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $10.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 403.77 points and NASDAQ is down 81.80 points. LIVE CATTLE: Attempting to regain some of what the market threw away in Thursday's sell-off, the live cattle contracts are trading well over $1.00 higher throughout the entire complex. June live cattle are up $1.70 at $121.80, August live cattle are up $1.37 at $122.47 and October live cattle are up $1.20 at $127.77. Even though Thursday's sell-off was disappointing, looking at the week the live cattle market and the cash cattle market have had is rather impressive. If Friday's slaughter can come in at a sizeable level and if packers can run a fast Saturday kill, this week will also be gunning for an impressive slaughter somewhere around 660,000 head, depending on how Friday and Saturday shake out. I know it can be tempting to see lower boxed beef prices and think the market is subpar. But a seasonal high was fully anticipated and the market's current boxed beef prices are still allowing packers to make healthy profits. It's looking like the week's cash cattle trade is done with as there haven't been any bids renewed. Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.78 ($325.47) and select down $1.59 ($285.65) with a movement of 58 loads (32.97 loads of choice, 12.88 loads of select, 5.71 loads of trim and 6.28 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: Simply put, the feeder cattle contracts are cussing the corn market as they thoroughly enjoyed rallying throughout the earlier part of the week when corn was dogging lower. Thankfully the market's weaker demeanor comes after the nation's first big test of feeder cattle prices for the year. If you didn't get a chance to watch Superior's Corn Belt Classic on Thursday, the market was hot as buyers came charged and ready to buy cattle and program cattle (NHTC, verified natural and GAP 4) especially saw exceptional demand. August feeders are down $0.25 at $157.15, September feeders are down $0.57 at $158.52 and October feeders are down $0.77 at $159.92. LEAN HOGS: The lean hog complex is somewhat licking its wounds after this last week and attempting to regain some lost positioning before the week's end. July lean hogs are down $0.30 at $110.70, August lean hogs are up $0.95 at $108.17 and October lean hogs are up $1.92 at $88.85. The market sees more and more support from the October 2021 contract on out into the deferred months, where the market hopes to find more stability. The cash hog market is lower Friday morning which doesn't come as an unsettling surprise given how aggressive packers were earlier in the week. Heading into the weeks to come, even though supplies are thin, packers may be a little more cautious of the market until they see some of the week's demand and performance. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/17/2021 is down $1.30 at $120.38 and the actual index for 6/16/2021 is down $0.91 at $121.68. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $3.26 with a weighted average of $116.04, ranging from $113.00 to $134.00 on 2,445 head and a five-day rolling average of $118.50. Pork cutouts total 192.40 loads with 170.29 loads of pork cuts and 22.12 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.75, $127.58. ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com (c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
US Direct Feeder Pigs 06/18
DTN Closing Grain Comments 06/18 14:38
DTN Closing Grain Comments 06/18 14:38 Grains Post Quick Turnaround After Dumping Specs Thursday One day after heavy noncommercial selling took grain prices sharply lower, those same grains turned quickly higher Friday, taking back much of Thursday' lost ground. It continues to be a volatile time for grains with outside topics distracting traders from stressful crop conditions in the field. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: July corn closed up 22 1/4 cents and December corn was up 33 3/4 cents. July soybeans closed up 66 1/4 cents and November soybeans were up 60 1/4 cents. July KC wheat closed up 21 1/4 cents, July Chicago wheat was up 23 3/4 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was up 6 3/4 cents.
DTN Chart Technical Points 06/18 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 06/18 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 6/18/21 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT JUL 662.75 656.50 670.25 672.33 694.05 44.50 44.99 48.19 30 29 30 37 CBTWT SEP 665.75 660.13 675.08 676.92 696.06 43.68 44.61 48.23 28 26 31 41 KC WT JUL 606.50 603.81 621.08 621.92 652.26 40.89 42.01 45.82 20 20 29 39 KC WT SEP 615.75 612.63 629.42 629.86 658.54 41.50 42.52 46.18 22 21 31 41 MN WT JUL 762.50 755.44 760.44 754.56 740.85 53.60 54.26 55.85 56 46 48 51 MN WT SEP 766.25 761.06 766.33 760.10 746.29 52.83 53.86 55.73 53 45 49 52 CORN JUL 655.25 657.19 671.36 666.44 663.19 45.68 47.95 52.58 26 24 47 59 CORN SEP 577.50 576.56 603.64 593.61 589.17 44.28 46.92 51.28 16 13 45 64 CORN DEC 566.25 561.25 585.75 573.29 566.46 47.07 49.12 52.66 21 16 50 68 OATS JUL 370.00 369.13 379.86 380.01 386.42 42.96 44.53 47.61 40 31 30 44 OATS SEP 369.50 367.81 376.64 377.93 375.87 44.77 46.76 50.55 40 30 31 46 BEANS JUL1396.001410.001478.581510.791526.46 33.31 35.84 43.10 15 9 10 16 BEANS AUG1355.001369.501441.581468.781477.18 32.53 35.44 42.98 13 7 9 21 BEANS SEP1317.251329.501398.781412.061406.19 34.32 37.57 45.04 14 8 15 36 S MEAL JUL 373.40 371.63 377.94 384.71 406.46 40.20 39.28 41.70 35 24 11 8 S MEAL AUG 373.80 372.53 379.66 386.13 404.50 39.26 38.92 42.03 31 21 11 10 B OIL JUL 58.12 60.58 65.49 66.84 64.31 27.49 34.33 45.57 7 9 10 29 B OIL AUG 56.71 58.56 63.42 64.04 60.97 31.42 37.33 47.20 8 7 15 41 CATTLE JUN 121.05 121.17 119.38 117.80 117.04 64.21 61.27 56.02 63 78 88 89 CATTLE AUG 121.55 122.87 120.83 119.73 119.19 55.47 55.09 53.85 52 72 79 76 FEEDER AUG 155.02 156.74 153.18 152.74 151.03 56.89 55.60 53.00 72 85 78 61 FEEDER SEP 157.23 158.69 155.41 154.99 153.01 57.64 56.42 53.82 73 85 81 64 HOGS JUL 108.68 113.42 117.39 118.13 112.82 21.81 33.01 47.16 0 5 35 62 HOGS AUG 106.68 110.07 114.24 115.18 109.23 21.71 33.78 48.33 0 5 34 61 COTTON JUL 84.42 84.80 85.59 84.59 85.65 46.02 47.71 49.18 35 39 53 64 COTTON OCT 86.11 86.28 87.26 86.00 85.63 49.32 51.02 52.40 27 32 54 74 RICE JUL 12.61 12.38 12.67 12.97 13.37 38.88 37.19 40.56 21 10 9 5 RICE SEP 12.90 12.65 12.95 13.24 13.47 40.37 38.97 43.25 21 10 10 6
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 06/18 15:55
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 06/18/21
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 65 WEEK TO DATE: 22,727
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 420 WEEK TO DATE: 20,781
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable dressed trade
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 318 WEEK TO DATE: 7,447
STEERS LIVE FOB
201 120.00-120.00 120.00-120.00 120.00
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
117 122.00-122.00 122.00-122.00 122.00
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
Not available due to confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
Not available due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
Not available due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
Not available due to confidentiality
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 1,423 WEEK TO DATE: 16,553
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
843 200.00-200.00 200.00-200.00 200.00
STEERS DRESSED FOB
102 195.00-195.00 195.00-195.00 195.00
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
168 200.00-200.00 200.00-200.00 200.00
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: Just a little clean up trade reported today. Northern
dressed deals this week have had a range of $192 to $200, mostly $195, $4
higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. Southern live
business has had a range of $120 to $124, mostly $122, generally $2 higher
than last week's weighted averages.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $123.23(1455) HIDE&OFFAL: $12.62 +.14
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED $180.56 $157.23 62,047
BOX BASED $311.28 $271.61 41,585
AVE INDEX $245.92 -1.23 $214.42 -1.56 103,632
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$323.28 -2.97 $283.61 -3.63
46.17 LDS CH CUTS / 23.38 LDS SEL CUTS / 10.03 LDS TRIM / 7.42 LDS GROUND
DAILY CHOICE/SELECT SPREAD $39.67 TOTAL LOAD COUNT 87
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 06/11 $323.96 +1.49
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $226.60 +1.30
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 30.08 lds / wk/slightly lr on lt-mod dem & mod offers
90% TRIM: 05 lds: Wtd Avg $277.22 / Unevenly steady
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 117(594) WK AGO 119(595) YR AGO 117(588) MIX: THU SH95/CB25
SAT 69(663) WK AGO 70(665) YR AGO 57(646)
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 06/05/21 2,463 3,975
Week Ending: 05/29/21 2,521 3,749
Change from prev week: -58 +226
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 06/18 16:00
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 06/18 16:00 Finally, the Week the Cattle Complex Needed Heading into next week's trade, the cash cattle market prays that bids will come steady, if not higher, and the feeder cattle contracts hope to find weaker corn prices once again. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: It was a long week, but it was a good week for the cattle contracts! With both the live cattle market and feeder cattle market finding support and being able to trade higher throughout most of the week, the complex rallied support that's been absent from the market for quite some time. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.34 with a weighted average of $122.62 on 3,961 head. July corn is up 22 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $11.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 468.82 points and NASDAQ is down 106.02 points.
