US Direct Feeder Pigs 12/09
DTN Early Word Grains 12/11 06:12
DTN Early Word Grains 12/11 06:12 Grains Soft as Trade War Persists March corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel, January soybeans are down 2 cents, and March KC wheat is down 2 1/2 cents. By Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst 6:00 a.m. CME Globex: March corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel, January soybeans are down 2 cents, and March KC wheat is down 2 1/2 cents. CME Globex Recap: Global equities are quiet to weaker overnight, awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate policy later Wednesday. Most analysts believe the Federal Reserve will leave benchmark rates unchanged, hitting the pause button on the recent string of rate cuts. Grain markets are weaker overnight, moving past an incredibly quiet December WASDE report to refocus on trade war rhetoric and South American weather. Production in the United States remains unsettled, and the round of USDA reports in January isn't likely to settle that debate given the amount of unharvested grain in the Upper Midwest. The near future remains one of uncertainty with prices likely remaining inside recent ranges until a resolution to the trade war or a major shift in South American weather occurs. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Tuesday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 27.88 at 27,881.72 and the S&P 500 down 3.44 at 3,135.96 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 1.833%. Early Wednesday, the December DJIA futures are down 32 points. Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 18.33 (-0.08%) and China's Shanghai Composite up 7.1 points (0.24%). European markets are mixed with London's FTSE 100 down 0.41 points (-0.01%), Germany's DAX up 37.27 points (0.29%) and France's CAC 40 down 5.4 points (-0.09%). The December Euro is down 0.002 at 1.110 and the December U.S. dollar index is up 0.090 at 97.475. The March 30-Year T-Bond is up 8/32nds, while February gold is up $3.30 at $1,471.40 and January crude oil is down $0.37 at $58.87.
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 12/11 06:22
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 12/11 06:22 Cattle Futures Establishing Pre-Holiday Range Limited activity in cattle trade appears to be gearing up for a range-bound market structure through the end of the year. Strong hog market gains put more emphasis on trade talks, although no schedule has yet been announced. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst Cattle: Steady to higher Futures: Mixed Live Equiv $144.69 -0.96* Hogs: Steady to higher Futures: Higher Lean Equiv $ 88.09 +1.14** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: Cash cattle traders are inching closer to getting business done Wednesday morning with limited asking prices and bids available by the end of Tuesday. Cattle are priced in the South at $121 to $122 per cwt with bids slowly developing at $118 per cwt. Limited interest is yet seen in the North, although both sides appear not to be in any significant hurry and trade may not develop until sometime Thursday or Friday. Given the stability and narrow shifts in futures trade, and continued pressure in beef values, it may be a challenge for feedlot managers to demand much more than steady to firm once the dust settles at the end of the week. The erosion in boxed beef values seems to have triggered only limited concerns in futures trade as traders continue to focus on the still strong beef values as compared to where prices have held through most of the fall. But traders will be looking for a sense of stability over the coming days in order to break away from the wholesale beef price freefall through the end of the year. Futures trade is likely to remain mixed again in a narrow to moderate range early Wednesday morning. With very limited long-term direction expected over the next couple of weeks, traders appear to be settling into a narrow to moderate holiday range, which may bring some additional stability to the complex through the end of the year. Wednesday slaughter runs are expected at 122,000 head.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/11 10:58
DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/11 10:58 All Grains Lower at Midday Broadly weaker trade at midday with corn leading us lower. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 30. The dollar index is unchanged. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude down $0.70. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $9.00. CORN Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents lower with trade scoring new lows for the move with selling picking up during the day session on seasonal selling and demand concerns. On the WASDE report, domestic carryout was unchanged at 1.91 billion, with South American production unchanged, and world stocks at 300.6 million metric tons up from 296 last month, but well below last year at 320.6 million. The weekly ethanol report showed production up again, 12,000 barrels per day, while stocks jumped sharply up, 1.176 million barrels. Basis has held up well with some strength showing up at processors again. On the March contract support is the lower Bollinger Band at $3.73 which we are just below at midday, with resistance the 20-day at $3.79. SOYBEANS Soybeans trade is 5 to 7 cents lower with trade strength evaporating as corn turned lower, and buy the rumor sell the fact action with 585,000 metric tons of sales to China confirmed. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 lower and oil is 10 to 20 points lower. The real remains cheap vs. the dollar with Brazilian weather still in good shape, with Argentina more mixed short term. Bean basis has moved to a more sideways trend short term with the futures rally likely to soften basis in some areas this week. On the WASDE report, domestic carryout was unchanged at 475 million metric tons, Brazil and Argentina production unchanged, and world stocks at 96.4 million metric tons, up 1.0 million metric tons last month. January chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $8.65 which we are finally pulling away from, with trade just above the 20-day at $8.95, with the upper Bollinger Band at 9.25. WHEAT Wheat trade is 1 to 7 cents lower with trade pulling back from the gains seen post report as the carryout declined slightly with Kansas City trade holding up the best. The Chicago/Kansas City March spread is back to 88 cents narrowing from the high with Kansas City gaining sharply the last two days. Chicago also holding a 11 cent premium to Minneapolis which has narrowed to start the week. The dollar remains rangebound. Export business remains quiet with Russian values rising again and some midweek tenders. The forecast has some moisture for Kansas. The WASDE report showed the carryout down 40 million bushels to 974 million with world stocks at 289.5 million metric tons, up 1.2 million from last month. The March Kansas City chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $4.22, and resistance the 20-day at 4.34. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (AG) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 12/11 12:11
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 12/11 12:11 Cattle Contracts Higher; Hog Complex Lower Cattle contracts seem to be finding some midweek support, while lean hog contracts trade mostly lower. By ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst General Comments "Hello Wednesday" cattle contracts seem to say, with both live and feeder futures trading modestly higher. This is giving some support to the cash cattle market, but not really helping the lean hog futures. March corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $2.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 53.97 points and NASDAQ is up 11.85 points. LIVE CATTLE Opening nearly steady with Tuesday's close, live cattle futures have taken a turn for modestly higher prices and look to trade higher in the cash too. Wednesday morning at the Fed Cattle Exchange, the auction offered a total of 1,068 head (two lots in Kansas, one lot in Texas and four lots in Nebraska). Asking prices ranged from $119 to $119.50, and no sales were reported. Asking prices float around the countryside at $121 to $121 in the South, and $192 plus in the North. It seems as though feeders know that if they are to get higher prices before the end of the year, the time is now before the market is overcome with Christmas. December live cattle are up $0.52 at $120.40, February live cattle are up $0.55 at $125.12 and April live cattle are up $0.70 at $125.75. Box beef prices are down: choice down $1.77 ($219.72) and select down $1.16 ($204.19) with a movement of 101 loads (63.29 loads of choice, 17.54 loads of select, 0 loads of trim and 20.40 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE Live cattle and feeder cattle markets are performing well Wednesday. Wednesday comes as the fourth consecutive day of steady gains in the feeder cattle complex, and it looks like Wednesday's strength should carry into closing. January feeder cattle are up $0.95 at $142.60, March feeders are up $0.92 at $143.45 and April feeders are up $0.77 at $145.25. If this week's cash market can capture gains, the feeder cattle market may be able to steal some of that energy and post gains throughout the week. Given what countryside prices are though, it's going to be tough to rally the market much because of the surplus of calves and being a mere two weeks away from Christmas. LEAN HOGS Wednesdays aren't the lean hog's time to shine. Showing a mildly depressed market, contracts are mostly lower. December lean hogs are up $0.15 at $60.62, February lean hogs are down $0.47 at $67.50 and April lean hogs are down $0.15 at $74.05. Cash prices may be down slightly, but packers have been relatively aggressive and given that cutout values are still holding, cash prices may hold steady or come back up (slightly). The projected two-day lean hog index for 12/09/19 is up $0.35 at $58.47, and the actual index for 12/06/19 came in at $58.12, up $0.37. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.12 with a weighted average of $47.46, ranging from $42.00 to $48.97 on 10,153 hogs sold and five-day rolling average of $47.07. Pork cuts total 182.08 loads with 137.73 loads of pork cuts and 44.35 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.51 at $83.63. ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com (AG) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 12/11 13:48
DTN Closing Grain Comments 12/11 13:48 Soybeans Plummet Despite New China Buying; Corn, Wheat Fall Hard Following six consecutive higher closes and a USDA WASDE report which offered little change to the soybean supply and demand table, soybeans plunged on heavy fund selling Wednesday. This comes despite confirmation that China had bought another 21.4 million bushels (mb) of U.S. soybeans with another sale of 5 mb sold to unknown, which may also be China. Corn fell hard as well on new fund selling, pressuring wheat.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 12/11 15:40
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 12/11/19
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 1,689
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
Trade not available due to confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
Trade not available due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
Trade not available due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
Trade not available due to confidentiality
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
Trade not available due to confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
Trade not available due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
Trade not available due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
Trade not available due to confidentiality
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 18 WEEK TO DATE: 966
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
18 188.00-188.00 188.00-188.00 188.00
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: A very quiet day with the cash trade at a virtual
standstill. Significant trade volume will likely be delayed until Thursday
or Friday.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $118.40(1410)Light Test HIDE&OFFAL: $9.28 +0.06
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED $181.16 $161.08 69,656
BOX BASED $206.65 $191.72 60,317
AVE INDEX $193.90 -1.48 $176.40 -0.87 129,973
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$218.65 -2.84 $203.72 -1.63
99.41 LDS CH CUTS / 24.91 LDS SEL CUTS / 5.42 LDS TRIM / 35.45 LDS GROUND
BOXED BEEF TREND: Lower on light demand and moderate offerings.
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 12/06 $225.71 -4.63
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $186.46 +11.81
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 50.83 lds / Unevenly stdy on lt-mod dem & offers
90% TRIM: 33 lds: Wtd Avg $242.76 / Sharply higher
FI KILL(WTD) WED 122(365) WK AGO 117(357) YR AGO 121(361) MIX: TUE SH96/CB26
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 11/30/19 929 11,409
Week Ending: 11/23/19 1,840 12,325
Change from prev week: -911 -916
DTN Chart Technical Points 12/11 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 12/11 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 12/11/19 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT DEC 530.75 532.50 535.36 526.10 518.16 53.36 55.23 55.35 31 23 65 68 CBTWT MAR 519.25 522.56 527.08 523.11 520.23 44.35 48.15 51.06 22 20 47 54 KC WT DEC 415.50 414.50 422.44 423.83 423.29 41.69 44.67 47.50 13 6 10 25 KC WT MAR 430.75 429.75 435.33 434.49 434.52 45.33 47.28 48.49 25 17 27 41 MN WT DEC 500.50 497.88 495.97 496.89 518.16 51.37 45.30 43.26 48 46 27 21 MN WT MAR 518.25 515.38 514.22 513.82 533.87 52.38 46.41 44.05 61 46 27 21 CORN DEC 357.75 363.31 367.14 367.67 378.53 28.13 33.06 39.91 7 9 13 24 CORN MAR 371.25 375.19 377.83 378.13 388.84 31.62 35.49 40.84 11 14 17 25 CORN MAY 378.00 381.13 383.44 383.78 394.92 33.23 36.15 40.72 12 15 17 24 OATS DEC 315.25 315.50 318.64 314.86 305.55 51.14 54.23 56.50 26 18 50 60 OATS MAR 293.75 294.00 299.22 306.24 300.16 34.92 41.02 48.41 36 30 15 21 BEANS JAN 893.50 895.38 884.67 892.43 918.99 48.85 44.75 45.35 80 82 40 24 BEANS MAR 908.00 909.75 899.14 906.57 931.99 49.25 45.10 45.61 80 82 41 24 BEANS MAY 921.75 923.63 913.53 920.35 943.68 49.24 45.29 45.97 80 82 41 24 S MEAL DEC 293.30 296.07 294.79 297.22 302.03 38.88 40.85 44.21 35 53 35 30 S MEAL JAN 295.00 297.88 296.78 299.36 304.32 37.80 40.03 43.83 32 49 34 29 B OIL DEC 31.23 31.27 30.67 30.66 30.74 60.33 57.19 55.49 87 88 62 34 B OIL JAN 31.44 31.48 30.87 30.85 30.95 60.62 57.34 55.52 84 85 62 35 CATTLE DEC 120.58 120.21 120.30 119.89 117.72 59.34 60.77 61.67 58 48 59 59 CATTLE FEB 125.33 124.91 125.12 125.17 123.11 54.90 57.23 60.62 52 45 42 45 FEEDER JAN 142.77 141.88 141.75 142.30 142.64 54.11 52.27 53.28 66 51 35 33 FEEDER MAR 143.68 142.54 142.41 142.79 142.39 57.43 55.14 55.28 73 53 41 39 HOGS DEC 60.70 60.58 61.18 61.31 64.29 43.06 42.70 44.37 17 22 13 18 HOGS FEB 67.73 67.49 67.63 68.06 72.22 44.15 42.29 43.76 38 40 18 19 COTTON MAR 65.88 65.80 65.18 65.30 65.33 55.73 54.32 53.94 72 69 57 42 COTTON MAY 66.95 66.78 66.18 66.37 66.28 56.77 55.07 54.67 76 70 51 35 RICE JAN 12.43 12.41 12.39 12.27 12.14 64.84 62.06 56.54 85 61 79 76 RICE MAR 12.67 12.62 12.59 12.47 12.34 68.58 64.72 58.18 89 64 84 80
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 12/11 16:01
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 12/11 16:01 Stronger Close for Livestock Contracts Wednesday Call the day a midweek win as live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed higher and lean hog contracts close mixed. By ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Overall Wednesday closed stronger in all three livestock contracts. Cattle contracts closed the day stronger throughout all contract months and the lean hog market closed mixed with some contracts higher and some lower. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.21 with a weighted average of $47.79. March corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $3.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 29.58 points and NASDAQ is up 37.87 points.
