US Direct Feeder Pigs 08/12
DTN Early Word Grains 08/16 05:57
DTN Early Word Grains 08/16 05:57 Grains Higher At End Of Bearish Week December corn is up 3 1/4 cents, November soybeans are up 6 cents and December KC wheat is up 2 cents. By Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst 6:00 a.m. CME Globex: December corn is up 3 1/4 cents, November soybeans are up 6 cents and December KC wheat is up 2 cents. CME Globex Recap: U.S. stock futures and European stock markets are higher early Friday with headlines highlighting protests in Hong Kong, tensions between the two Koreas and the fragile state of U.S. trade talks with China. Falling interest rates continue to point to slowing economies. Outside of grains, most commodities are mixed to higher early Friday. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 99.97 at 25,579.39 and the S&P 500 up 7.00 at 2,847.60 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 1.53%. Early Friday, the September DJIA futures are up 242 points. Asian markets are higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 13.16 (0.06%) and China's Shanghai Composite up 8.03 points (0.29%). European markets are higher with London's FTSE 100 up 31.12 points (0.44%), Germany's DAX up 90.07 points (0.79%) and France's CAC 40 up 57.06 points (0.90%). The September euro is down $0.0028 at $1.1106. The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.14 at 98.14. The September 30-year T-bond is down 20/32nds, while December gold is down $8.70 at $1,522.50 and September crude oil is up $0.95 at $55.42. Soybeans and meal showed slight losses on China's Dalian Exchange. November palm oil is down 0.4%.
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 08/16 06:14
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 08/16 06:14 Mixed Price Moves Expected Friday Trade Friday morning is expected to remain sluggish with a combination of follow-through buyer support and late-week position adjustments in sluggish morning trade. The volatile swings this week will add to unsteady end-of-the-week shifts. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst Cattle: Lower Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $151.64 +2.68* Hogs: Steady to Lower Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $ 93.09 -0.67** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: Limited market direction is expected early Friday morning in cattle trade as traders remain focused on regaining market stability as they slowly step back into the complex following the early-week market tumble. But buyer intensity quickly slowed late Thursday as traders focused on continued weakness in cash cattle trade. Limited cash trade started to develop late Thursday afternoon in the North at $170 per cwt. This is $10 per cwt lower than last week, and generally in line with bids from the last couple of days. Barring additional wide shifts in futures trade, it appears the tone of the market may be set for the week with live trade in the South around $105 per cwt, while dressed trade in the North at $170 per cwt. This is generally $5 per cwt lower in the South and $10 lower in the North from last week's levels. The biggest question yet to be answered is just how many cattle will sell at these price levels, as some feeders appear to be willing to once again hold cattle over until next week given the aggressive rally in beef values helping sustain margins. This should give packers incentive to maximize capacity in the short-term due to the significantly improved margins.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/16 10:53
DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/16 10:53 Corn Leads Positive Trade at Midday Corn is 4 to 5 cents higher; soybeans are 3 to 5 cents higher and wheat is mixed. Outside markets are lightly positive. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 260 higher. The dollar index is 5 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude up 0.20. Livestock trade has cattle higher with hogs mostly higher. Precious metals are weaker with gold $11.30 lower. CORN Corn is 4 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade trying to get a second positive day to close out the week and ease oversold conditions that have built post USDA reports. The weather forecast looks to be a non-issue in the near term for most with rains slated for many areas and September extended forecasts showing warmer-than-normal temps for the belt, curbing frost concerns for the moment. Ethanol margins remain poor with blenders seeing the most short-term benefits with ethanol futures edging higher this morning. Basis remains mixed overall. On the September nearby chart, support is likely the $3.59 low with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.57 below that. Resistance is the 10-day at $3.89, reflecting the break this week. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 4 to 6 cents higher with the firmer overnight action continuing, with light follow through during the day session. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. NOPA crush came in Thursday at 168.093 million bushels, much above the 155.826 mb estimate. Basis remains flat overall. The Brazilian real is recovering off of fresh lows scored Thursday and the Argentina peso still at rock-bottom prices. The weather looks to be a short-term non-issue for soybeans as well. USDA announced 296,500 metric tons sold to unknown for new crop. The September chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $8.43 below that. The next level of resistance is the 10-day at $8.64, which we are testing at midday. WHEAT Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday, with trade looking to see if the spread reversal for KC sticks from Thursday, along with oversold conditions starting to ease. The corn/hard red winter wheat spread has narrowed 6 cents this morning, after getting back to 30 on Thursday. KC wheat is now back to competitive on the world market trading at a discount to the lowest offers in the most recent GASC tender. Spring wheat harvest should expand with winter wheat just about wrapped up, with Europe continuing to move toward spring wheat harvest as well. The September KC chart support is the new low at $3.80 3/4 with the first resistance the $4.00 area. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (CZ) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 08/16 11:55
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 08/16 11:55 Hog Futures Erode Friday Morning Sharp triple-digit losses developed in lean hog futures as technical pressure triggered additional sell signals. This added increased pressure to the entire complex. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst General Comments Hog futures are showing significant pressure midday Friday as strong initial gains quickly evaporated as technical reversal triggers have developed. Nearby futures are holding losses more than $2 per cwt. Cattle trade remains firm, but well off morning highs. Corn futures are steady to lower in limited trade volume. September corn futures are higher. Stock markets are higher in light trade. Dow Jones is 282 points higher with NASDAQ up 127 points. LIVE CATTLE: Limited futures activity is seen Friday morning with traders holding onto moderate gains which developed early in the session. The wide price swings seen earlier in the week seem to have subsided, as traders try to find market support at current levels. With August futures hovering just above $100 per cwt, while October futures remain near long term and contract lows under $99 per cwt, the focus is moving toward the weakness in cash cattle trade. Strong underlying support in beef values over the last couple of days has done very little to spark interest in cash spot month futures activity. Cash cattle trade remains quiet following sharply lower prices earlier in the week. Live trade developed in the South at $105 per cwt Wednesday, roughly $5 per cwt lower than last week. Dressed trade seen at $172 once the dust settled in the North was $10 per cwt lower. There are a few bids at $106 live in Nebraska still on the table, but it appears that both sides may call it a week and hope for better results next week. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $2.00 higher (select) and up 1.73 (choice) with moderate light of 57 total loads reported (37 loads of choice cuts, 6 loads of select cuts, 4 loads of trimmings, 9 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle futures have been unable to hold morning highs as limited support is seen at midday. The inability not only to bring additional strong buying back into the complex, but to flirt with lower prices through the last couple hours of trade is weakening the potential of the recent market rally in the last couple of days. August and September contracts are holding gains of 35 to 37 cents per cwt. There still remains a lot of uncertainty as to how much follow-through pressure will develop over the next few weeks as packers struggle with reduced plant capacity, even though production is being shifted around the country over the last few days. LEAN HOGS: Lean hog futures tumbled lower midday as a combination of renewed technical selling and fundamental pressure quickly eroded morning optimism. The swift shift lower in morning cash hog prices combined with additional softness in pork values left traders unwilling to hang onto early gains as increased widespread weakness is developing. October lean hog futures posted a strong market reversal Friday morning, as triple-digit losses have moved to $63.20 per cwt at midday. This moves through long-term support levels of $63.25 per cwt seen exactly one year ago on August 16, 2018. The inability for front month futures to hold above these price levels at the end of the session would likely spark additional technical triggers early next week. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $1.23 at $68.91 per cwt with the range from $59 to $74 on 5,588 head reported sold. Pork values continue to steadily erode and moderate pressure developed in all but rib cuts Friday. Pork cutouts fell $0.41 per cwt at $87.82 per cwt with 210 loads traded. Lean hog index for 8/14 is $79.34, down 0.52, with a projected two-day index is $79.02, down 0.32. Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com (CZ) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 08/16 14:02
DTN Closing Grain Comments 08/16 14:02 Corn Rebounds to Finish Week After a week of lower trading, pressured by USDA's higher corn crop estimate Monday, December corn finished up 9 3/4 cents Friday with soybeans and all three wheats also higher. The DTN/Progressive Farmer Digital Yield Tour, powered by Gro Intelligence may have played a part, estimating lower national yields for both corn and soybeans than USDA currently expects.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 08/16 15:20
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 08/16/19
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 242 WEEK TO DATE: 9,538
STEERS LIVE FOB
80 105.00-105.00 105.00-105.00 105.00
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 2,261 WEEK TO DATE: 8,753
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
852 172.00-172.00 172.00-172.00 172.00
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
233 172.00-172.00 172.00-172.00 172.00
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 6,635
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
263 105.00-105.00 105.00-105.00 105.00
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
Not reported due to confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
Not reported due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 696 WEEK TO DATE: 8,336
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
194 172.00-178.00 172.00-178.00 174.79
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable dressed trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: The country was fairly quiet today with just a few cleanup deals
reported.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $105.78(1426) HIDE&OFFAL: $9.30 Unchg
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED $166.89 $142.72 56,201
BOX BASED $226.69 $201.26 49,897
AVE INDEX $196.79 -0.02 $171.99 -0.22 106,098
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$238.69 +2.57 $213.26 +2.59
55.04 LDS CH CUTS / 15.96 LDS SEL CUTS / 10.22 LDS TRIM / 18.96 LDS GROUND
BOXED BEEF TREND: Shrply hr on gd dem & mod offers
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 08/09 $211.51 +3.01
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $176.45 +0.91
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 38.99 lds / Slightly lr on lt dem & mod offers
90% TRIM: 04 lds: Wtd Avg $225.46 / Modly-shrply hr on a lt test
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 114(577) WK AGO 118(594) YR AGO 118(592) MIX: THU SH91/CB25
SAT 74(651) WK AGO 48(642) YR AGO 67(659)
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 08/03/19 1,386 4,867
Week Ending: 07/27/19 1,813 5,927
Change from prev week: -427 -1,060
DTN Chart Technical Points 08/16 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 08/16 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 8/16/19 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT SEP 470.75 471.38 480.83 487.21 506.23 36.94 39.41 43.93 14 15 11 23 CBTWT DEC 477.50 476.50 484.75 491.82 514.80 37.22 38.60 42.88 20 18 11 19 KC WT SEP 394.25 388.06 401.75 415.65 440.11 33.63 34.84 39.66 22 13 9 8 KC WT DEC 409.50 403.75 418.06 432.46 459.49 30.86 32.34 38.01 18 11 7 7 MN WT SEP 506.25 504.44 512.25 518.11 532.41 33.23 34.95 39.68 12 10 7 12 MN WT DEC 518.50 516.81 524.03 530.32 545.29 31.23 33.10 38.56 12 10 7 8 CORN SEP 371.00 364.19 385.97 397.60 423.02 32.46 33.75 39.78 9 4 4 13 CORN DEC 380.75 374.63 394.86 406.74 429.98 31.89 33.42 39.64 8 3 4 12 CORN MAR 392.75 387.38 406.14 417.46 438.27 32.07 33.64 39.69 8 3 4 13 OATS SEP 280.25 275.88 273.28 267.07 274.28 69.15 61.57 53.66 72 66 75 67 OATS DEC 274.25 269.75 269.97 267.81 275.41 56.92 53.47 50.86 58 43 37 36 BEANS SEP 867.25 866.75 865.56 870.67 890.62 47.26 46.16 46.70 27 43 36 35 BEANS NOV 879.75 879.38 878.22 883.22 903.10 47.21 46.16 46.76 27 42 35 35 BEANS JAN 893.50 892.81 891.58 896.57 915.66 47.54 46.41 46.96 27 42 36 36 S MEAL SEP 294.90 295.13 295.72 298.67 308.29 42.50 41.22 42.92 21 32 16 19 S MEAL OCT 296.80 296.93 297.51 300.39 310.02 42.86 41.53 43.11 22 33 16 19 B OIL SEP 29.13 29.13 28.93 28.60 28.37 58.84 57.61 54.31 43 59 74 78 B OIL OCT 29.25 29.26 29.05 28.72 28.49 58.78 57.56 54.29 42 59 74 78 CATTLE AUG 99.93 100.22 104.07 106.10 106.07 15.44 23.34 34.53 4 3 2 21 CATTLE OCT 98.05 98.58 102.69 105.78 106.67 11.56 18.90 30.72 3 1 1 10 FEEDER AUG 134.58 133.14 136.14 139.05 138.56 41.65 42.18 43.66 61 39 29 27 FEEDER SEP 132.38 131.43 135.20 138.64 138.62 36.77 38.24 41.11 47 31 20 25 HOGS OCT 62.00 64.59 65.75 69.60 72.18 30.27 33.77 38.77 21 29 17 23 HOGS DEC 60.78 63.08 63.39 67.55 70.74 30.43 33.54 38.77 33 46 21 23 COTTON OCT 60.08 59.67 59.13 60.70 63.07 47.75 43.74 40.98 88 79 36 32 COTTON DEC 60.13 59.68 59.21 60.98 63.44 46.10 42.13 39.86 86 77 28 24 RICE SEP 11.20 11.37 11.39 11.68 11.70 29.67 34.55 43.19 18 41 14 14 RICE NOV 11.51 11.66 11.68 11.93 11.90 30.60 35.99 45.07 16 38 16 17
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 08/16 16:43
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 08/16 16:43 Late-Week Pressure Develops in Hog Futures October lean hog futures took its turn at posting limit losses Friday as early support quickly evaporated following technical pressure, which triggered additional selling. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: For the week ended 8/16/19: From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: Aug LC off $8.13, Oct LC off $8.70; Aug FC off $4.33, Sep FC off $6.07; Oct LH off $4.97, Dec LH off $3.90.
