DTN Early Word Grains 01/21 05:55
DTN Early Word Grains 01/21 05:55 Grains Weaker Ahead of Export Sales March corn is down 1 cent per bushel, March soybeans are down 4 cents, and March KC wheat is down 3 1/2 cents. Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst Pre-6 a.m. Globex Prices: March corn is down 1 cent per bushel, March soybeans are down 4 cents, and March KC wheat is down 3 1/2 cents. CME Globex Recap: Mixed to lower equity trade overnight although U.S. futures have stabilized and managed to trade slightly higher following the sharp selloff Thursday. The main equity bourses in the U.S. have sustained quite the selloff this week as concerns about rising borrowing costs take hold amid surging inflation. Energy markets are solidly weaker overnight although have recovered well off the lows put in Thursday evening. The U.S. Dollar Index is slightly weaker, remaining between the 50 and 100-day moving averages. Metals are weaker across the board with copper down 1.00%. Grain markets are mostly weaker overnight with the exception of soybean oil, although all contracts are off the lows. Most ag markets are holding solid gains for the week and would be encouraging to hold them into the weekend. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 313.26 at 34,715.39 and the S&P 500 down 50.03 at 4,532.76 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 1.833%. Early Friday, the March DJIA futures are up 52 points. Asian markets are lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 250.67 (-0.9%) and China's Shanghai Composite down 32.5 points (-0.91%). European markets are lower with London's FTSE 100 down 56.97 points (-0.75%), Germany's DAX down 229.91 points (-1.44%) and France's CAC 40 down 87.6 points (-1.22%). The March Euro is up 0.002 at 1.130 and the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.085 at 95.640. The March 30-Year T-Bond is up 25/32nds, while February gold is down $7.90 at $1,834.70 and March crude oil is down $1.47 at $84.08. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were up 0.91% while soybean meal was up 1.16% and corn was up 0.04%.
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 01/21 05:59
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 01/21 05:59 Weekend Profit Taking Expected in Hog Futures Cattle futures tried to follow through on Thursday's strength but there just was not enough buyer interest after cash business was mostly done for the week. Hog futures gapped higher with some contracts, leaving a gap as traders bought into the market aggressively. Robin Schmahl DTN Contributing Analyst Cattle: Steady. Futures: Mixed. Live Equiv: $218.59 +$1.17* Hogs: Lower. Futures: Mixed. Lean Equiv: $99.19 -$3.23** *Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.) ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue. GENERAL COMMENTS: Boxed beef prices continued higher but that was not enough to support the market after cash traded generally steady for the week. Traders are cautious over the potential for cash prices over the next few weeks. The market looks more bullish over the long term, but with packers purchasing the required cattle for immediate slaughter as well as for the next few weeks, it leaves the market with potentially limited upside. Boxed beef prices continue higher, but that is not translating into cash prices. Heavier cattle weights and plentiful supply for the near term leaves the market is the position of limited upside. Trading activity may be two-sided as the market moves into the weekend.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/21 10:51
DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/21 10:51 Corn Futures Higher at Midday; Soybeans Lower; Wheat Mixed Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midday Friday; soybean futures are 10 to 12 cents lower; wheat is 5 cents lower to 2 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 100 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 10 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude down .20. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are weaker with gold off 10.00. CORN: Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with two-sided action so far. There was a test of the post-harvest highs at $6.17 before trade faded slightly with strong spread action continuing. Ethanol margins will continue to be squeezed by tepid short-term demand. Export sales rebounded solidly to 1.09 million metric tons (mmt) of old crop, and 105,000 metric tons (mt) of new crop with 247,800 mt sold to unknown for old crop. Basis should remain rangebound to slightly weaker in the short term with weather likely to slow short-term movement. Trade will continue watching South American weather as we head towards second crop planting and development. On the March contract we have support at the 20-day moving average of $6.02, then the upper Bollinger band at $6.16, which we are just below at midday. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 10 to 12 cents lower at midday with trade bouncing back from 20 lower early. Volatile trade is likely to continue with demand and South American potential still in focus. Meal is $6.50 to $7.50 lower and oil is 20 to 30 points higher. Basis remains mostly flat in the short term with some processors starting to widen. Crush margins remain solid with future renewable diesel demand likely to keep good support under oil coming forward. Early harvest is under way in South America, likely to further crimp U.S. export competitiveness in February with short-term forecasts still showing relief for some areas. Weekly export sales showed improvement at 671,000 mt old crop; 528,000 mt of new crop; 314,900 mt of old meal; 201,700 of new meal; and oil at 30,700. The daily wire also showed 132,000 mt of old crop to China. On the March soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high of $14.29 1/2, with trade back above the 20-day moving average at $13.79 support. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 5 cents lower to 2 cents higher at midday with trade fading back from the $8.00 area on the winter wheats. Spring wheat is consolidating above $9.00 with trade waiting for further political direction and Northern Hemisphere weather. The dollar remains squarely rangebound in the short term as well. Plains weather looks drier with a little snow cover out of the last system, while temps continue to fluctuate, keeping stress intact with other Northern Hemisphere weather concerns fading for the moment while political fears ramp up again with little change in the Russia/Ukraine situation. Weekly export sales were improved at 380,600 mt of old crop and 72,000 mt of new crop. Spring wheat is firmer vs. Chicago, moving the premium to $1.57 on the March, with KC at a 12-cent premium in firmer action as well. KC March chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $7.37 with the 20-day moving average at $7.98, which we are just below at midday. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 01/21 12:19
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 01/21 12:19 Cattle Futures Sag Lower Friday; Hogs Push New Highs Active contracts of live cattle and feeders were lower at midday, on track for small losses on the week. February lean hogs were higher, however, threatening to close at a new three-month high. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Most of Friday's commodity board was painted red, including the active futures contracts of live cattle and feeder cattle. It has been a fairly quiet week for cattle on the futures board as markets are cautious about the lower slaughter pace and this week's higher corn prices. Hog prices are having a much more bullish week, supported by low inventories and a good week of pork export sales reported Friday morning. March corn is up 3 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $8.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 60 points and NASDAQ is down 92 points. LIVE CATTLE: Cattle contracts started lower Friday and have kept a low profile during the four-day week, following Martin Luther King Jr. Day. February live cattle are down $0.45 at $137.87, April live cattle are down $0.97 at $142.20 and June live cattle are down $0.85 at $137.52. This week's cash cattle trade was mostly seen at $137 in the South, up $1.00 to $1.50 from last week's weighted averages. In the North, trades have been mostly steady, near $218. If there is light trade remaining Friday, we haven't seen it yet. Thursday's carcass weights were steady for steers at 928 pounds and four pounds lower for heifers at 851 pounds. Steer weights are up 16 pounds from a year ago and present some concern during this time of high coronavirus cases and lower slaughter rates. Thursday's slaughter did show some improvement however, estimated by USDA at 116,000 -- up from 114,000 the previous week. Friday morning's choice boxed beef prices were down $0.26 at $292.72 and selects were up $0.49 at $282.67 with 46 total loads. Boxed prices are on track for gains of roughly $8 to $9 from last Friday, continuing to climb higher since mid-December. At 2 p.m. CST, USDA will release its cattle on-feed report for January 1, 2022. Pre-report estimates from Dow Jones expect USDA to find 11.929 million head on-feed, down 0.3% from a year ago. December placements are expected to come in 1.8% higher and marketings are expected to be 0.9% higher. FEEDER CATTLE: March feeders are down $1.35 at $163.60 and the January contract is down $0.60 at $160.57, set to expire Thursday, Jan. 27. Wednesday's CME Feeder Index was listed at $161.20. With dry weather concerns in South America and the conflict in Ukraine giving corn prices a boost this week, feeder cattle appear to be headed for a lower close, both for Friday and for the week. This week's lower stock market and ongoing concerns about the slower pace of cattle slaughter backing up cattle are also not helping feeder prices. With so many bearish headwinds this week, it says something about underlying demand to see March feeder cattle still holding above their 100-day average at $162.80. LEAN HOGS: February lean hogs are up $1.32 at $86.25, April lean hogs are up $1.20 at $95.20 and June lean hogs are up $1.12 at $104.95. Futures prices continue to look much more bullish than cash with the April and June contracts on track to finish the week with new contract highs. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for Thursday, Jan. 20 is $77.51, up from the actual index of $76.79 for Wednesday. Friday morning's Pork Market Formula price from USDA's morning hog report showed a weighted average price of $78.80 with a head count of 112,085, steady with Thursday morning's price. The negotiated weighted average was at $60.45 with a head count of 2,865, down from $61.14 Thursday. Overall, cash hog prices bottomed near Thanksgiving and have been slowly increasing since, following the bullish trail of much higher futures prices. USDA's morning report showed pork cutouts up $8.05 at $100.29 on 132.06 loads. Bellies, hams and butts were the popular cuts pushing the carcass value higher. If Friday morning's values hold, pork cutouts would be up roughly $11 on the week. Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1 (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
US Direct Feeder Pigs 09/03
DTN Closing Grain Comments 01/21 13:53
DTN Closing Grain Comments 01/21 13:53 Soybeans, Meal, Wheat Weaken; Spot Corn Firms Up Soybeans and meal were under heavy pressure much of Friday, with old- and new-crop beans rebuking new recent highs. Wheat fell on continuing talks to head off a Russian-Ukraine conflict. Corn rallied on improved demand, led by the spot month. Dana Mantini Senior Market Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: March corn closed up 5 1/4 cents per bushel and December corn was up 5 1/4 cents. March soybeans closed down 11 1/2 cents and November soybeans were down 11 1/2 cents. March KC wheat closed down 3 1/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 10 1/4 cents and March Minneapolis wheat was down 8 3/4 cents. The March U.S. Dollar Index is trading down 0.100 at 95.625. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 269.38 points at 34,446.01. February gold is down $11.30 at $1,831.30, March silver is down $0.36 at $24.36 and March copper is down $0.0665 at $4.5160. March crude oil is down $0.52 at $85.03, March heating oil is up $0.0063, March RBOB is down $0.0206 and February natural gas is up $0.181.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 01/21 15:35
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 01/21/22
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 11,860
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 1,092 WEEK TO DATE: 23,687
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
274 218.00-218.00 218.00-218.00 218.00
STEERS DRESSED FOB
671 218.00-218.00 218.00-218.00 218.00
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
147 218.00-218.00 218.00-218.00 218.00
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 111 WEEK TO DATE: 3,764
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
Not reported due to confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
Not reported due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
Not reported due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
Not reported due to confidentiality
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 844 WEEK TO DATE: 15,395
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable dressed trade
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
15 218.00-218.00 218.00-218.00 218.00
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: Just a little light scattered trade was reported today, at
fully steady money with the rest of the week's business. This week, Northern
dressed deals were marked at mostly $218, fully steady with last week's
weighted averages, a good many of these cattle are set for delivery the week
of January 31st and February 7th. Southern live transactions were at mostly
$137, $1 to $1.50 higher than last week's weighted averages.
The January 1 on feed report listed 12.0 million head, up 1% from January
2021, this is the second highest January 1 inventory since the series began
in 1996. Placements in December totaled 1.96 million head, 6% greater than
last year; marketing's in December totaled 1.86 million head, slightly above
the prior year; other disappearance in December totaled 54,000 head, 10%
under the same time last year.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $138.09(1503) HIDE&OFFAL: $14.15 Unchg
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED $199.34 $188.71 56,797
BOX BASED $280.41 $270.33 41,113
AVE INDEX $239.88 -0.10 $229.52 +0.26 97,910
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$292.41 -0.57 $282.33 +0.15
42.20 LDS CH CUTS / 11.53 LDS SEL CUTS / 8.25 LDS TRIM / 10.47 LDS GROUND
DAILY CHOICE/SELECT SPREAD $10.08 TOTAL LOAD COUNT 72
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 01/14 $280.40 +10.22
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $229.02 +0.40
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 18.88 lds / Frm/slghtly hr on mod dem & lt-mod offers
90% TRIM: 08 lds: Wtd Avg $276.29 / Firm
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 114(575) WK AGO 113(568) YR AGO 120(593) MIX: THU SH89/CB27
SAT 61(636) WK AGO 50(618) YR AGO 68(662)
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
WK ENDING FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 01/08/22 1,766 11,163
Week Ending: 01/01/22 1,543 5,043
Change from prev week: +223 +6,120
Year ending 2021 143,690 451,084
Year ending 2020 118,181 491,738
Change from prev year +25,509 -40,654
DTN Chart Technical Points 01/21 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 01/21 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 1/21/22 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT MAR 780.00 783.94 768.22 768.28 791.54 53.47 51.17 50.29 81 82 45 32 CBTWT MAY 784.75 786.88 770.89 771.43 795.79 54.39 51.64 50.46 82 82 44 31 KC WT MAR 793.25 790.63 779.47 788.99 814.97 51.59 49.28 49.80 86 74 29 20 KC WT MAY 796.25 793.69 781.53 790.54 815.68 52.21 49.73 50.05 86 75 30 20 MN WT MAR 936.00 931.88 918.25 943.32 993.88 47.32 43.91 44.72 89 76 29 17 MN WT MAY 931.50 928.06 915.50 939.38 985.91 47.09 43.94 45.09 89 76 29 16 CORN MAR 616.25 609.31 602.31 601.76 593.28 65.35 61.84 58.79 89 81 66 47 CORN MAY 614.00 608.94 603.00 602.64 595.14 63.19 60.20 57.80 88 80 60 44 CORN JUL 608.50 604.69 599.67 599.94 593.89 61.09 58.55 56.87 87 78 52 39 OATS MAR 623.00 641.56 640.47 662.67 698.98 35.09 36.87 43.47 59 61 27 18 OATS MAY 592.25 611.06 612.33 631.71 675.54 33.15 34.76 41.61 53 57 21 13 BEANS MAR1414.251398.131390.001381.221319.77 63.57 63.53 61.13 86 65 77 76 BEANS MAY1423.001407.311399.281390.251327.98 63.71 63.75 61.44 87 66 78 78 BEANS JUL1427.251412.381404.921395.461333.66 63.63 63.82 61.64 85 66 78 79 S MEAL MAR 392.70 395.48 404.67 407.64 381.72 41.43 47.83 54.32 30 22 32 52 S MEAL MAY 392.10 393.93 402.60 405.00 380.77 42.32 48.47 54.66 33 24 35 55 B OIL MAR 63.00 61.43 59.88 58.72 57.18 78.60 71.45 60.64 93 87 93 90 B OIL MAY 63.07 61.46 59.95 58.77 57.06 79.33 72.43 61.71 93 86 93 91 CATTLE FEB 137.93 138.12 137.55 138.13 138.28 50.26 50.10 51.08 64 67 40 34 CATTLE APR 142.10 142.62 141.76 142.68 142.27 48.54 49.51 51.66 72 78 43 31 FEEDER JAN 160.27 161.08 161.64 162.95 163.28 35.14 40.84 46.82 13 27 25 36 FEEDER MAR 163.30 164.83 165.46 166.52 165.64 36.31 42.20 48.08 18 29 45 52 HOGS FEB 86.20 83.76 80.98 81.42 81.19 70.23 63.98 57.11 96 96 76 44 HOGS APR 94.95 92.39 88.63 88.18 86.63 78.13 71.92 63.28 95 96 93 67 COTTON MAR 120.75 122.16 119.34 116.66 112.20 63.25 63.22 60.89 74 85 91 92 COTTON MAY 117.98 118.95 116.51 114.01 110.17 65.56 64.73 61.31 75 85 92 93 RICE MAR 14.85 14.70 14.52 14.62 14.41 66.66 62.85 58.96 83 81 76 62 RICE MAY 15.05 14.89 14.71 14.79 14.58 68.46 64.27 59.95 86 82 80 66
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 01/21 16:28
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 01/21 16:28 Lean Hogs Push to New Highs Friday Friday's closes brought a new three-month high to February hogs and new contract highs to the April and June contracts. Live cattle and feeders closed lower Friday; feeders were lower on the week. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Lower U.S. hog inventories in 2021 plus Friday's report of 38,700 metric tons (mt) of pork export sales for last week were enough to send hog futures to new high ground Friday, even to new contract highs for April and June contracts. Meanwhile, live cattle futures did well to finish the day with modest losses, staying mostly neutral in a week that had a lot of bearish headwinds for cattle. March feeder cattle did not hold up as well, closing down $1.65 Friday and ending down $3.07 on the week.
