US Direct Feeder Pigs 06/17
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 06/21 06:08
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 06/21 06:08 Follow-Through Pressure Likely Friday Sharp losses developing in all livestock trade Thursday sparked increased underlying weakness in the entire complex. A combination of follow-through selling and end-of-week short-covering is likely early Friday morning. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst Cattle: $2 to $4 Lower Futures: Lower Live Equiv: $142.53 +0.44* Hogs: Steady to $1 Lower Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $ 82.43 -0.25** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: Light-to-moderate cash cattle trade developed in most areas Thursday afternoon. Although some additional clean-up trade may develop during the day on Friday, a weaker tone is expected. Live cattle traded from $108 to $110 per cwt. This is mostly $2 per cwt lower than last week. Dressed trade in the North was reported at $178 to $183, mostly $181 to $183 per cwt. This is generally $3 to $4 per cwt lower than last week as packers were able to focus on fears that further pressure may develop later in the summer after the Fourth of July holiday. The sluggish movements in beef values has also eroded plant margins, causing packers to reduce spending and will likely slow overall production levels during late June and early July. Futures are expected mixed to mostly lower with the firm losses in feeder cattle trade sparking increased underlying weakness. At this point, the market remains technically stable, with prices still hovering within the wide sideways trading range seen the last couple months. Attention through late Friday is expected to also move to the afternoon Cattle on Feed report. Expectations are mixed ahead of the report. If cattle on feed and placed numbers come in near estimates, it is likely that the report will have little market impact.
DTN Early Word Grains 06/21 06:05
DTN Early Word Grains 06/21 06:05 Grains Higher, Soy Lower Ahead of USDA Report July corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel, July soybeans are down 3 1/2 cents, and July K.C. wheat is up 1 1/2 cents. By Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst 6:00 a.m. CME Globex: July corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel, July soybeans are down 3 1/2 cents, and July K.C. wheat is up 1 1/2 cents. CME Globex Recap: Equity markets are taking a slight breather to close the week after the S&P 500 hit an all-time record high Thursday as investors take solace in the easy-money-forever mantra currently held at most central banks. Meanwhile, tensions continue to escalate between the U.S. and Iran as President Trump was close to ordering retaliatory strikes before pulling back at the last minute. Energy markets are seeing their first bit of sustained strength in weeks. Grain markets are mixed to close the week with traders eyeing weather maps, anecdotal reports from the Eastern Corn Belt and pre-report estimates for next week. July weather maps from both private and public sources suggest a mostly favorable month for crop development, but with the delayed nature of this year, we will also need to see a favorable August through October to reach whatever potential is still available. Option expiration at the close today with some large strikes still in play for both corn and soybeans. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 249.17 at 26,753.17 and the S&P 500 up 27.72 at 2,926.46 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 2.001%. Early Friday, the September DJIA futures are down 34 points. Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 204.22 (-0.95%) and China's Shanghai Composite up 14.86 points (0.5%). European markets are lower with London's FTSE 100 down 0.51 points (-0.01%), Germany's DAX down 26.22 points (-0.21%) and France's CAC 40 down 1.64 points (-0.03%). The September Euro is up 0.002 at 1.140 and the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.013 at 96.125. The September 30-Year T-Bond is down 11/32nds, while August gold is up $5.20 at $1,402.10 and August crude oil is up $0.53 at $57.60. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were up 1.44% while soybean meal was up 1.32%.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/21 11:38
DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/21 11:38 Grain Trending Lower at Middayi Trade is softer across the board at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 100 higher. The dollar index is 10 weaker. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with crude 0.40 higher. Livestock trade is lower with hogs limit down. Precious metals are mixed with gold 2.30 higher. CORN Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents lower at midday with mixed action since overnight; traders note little fresh news. The forecast looks to trend towards warmer and drier into July with near term 1-4 inch rains lingering in many areas. Ethanol margins remain tight with blender margins getting a boost from the surge in crude values while ethanol futures have edged lower this AM. The trade continues to debate acreage losses and the yield effects of the late wet planting conditions that will keep uncertainty in this market for the growing season. Corn basis remains on a firmer trend, especially for the Eastern Belt. On the July nearby chart support is the 10-day at $4.41 1/2, with the 20-day at $4.31 below there. Resistance is the upper Bollinger Band at $4.60. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 7 to 10 cents lower with trade chopping lower as we start to move into more of a short-term range. Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 lower, and oil is flat to 10 points lower. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with oil leading again today. World export demand remains slow, and the South American currencies cheap but firming vs. the dollar after the Fed statement. Field work will likely be slowed again in many areas with more insurance days passing for soybeans before potentially more open weather at the end of the month with trade trying to hold on to acres with November near the contract highs with changes to haying regulations on cover crops helping to finish planting. The July chart support is the 200-day at $9.07, with next support the 100-day at $8.97, then the recent high at $9.21 as resistance. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents lower in choppy overnight trade ahead of another harvest weekend. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is in the process of scoring new highs again. The heavy rains are slated more for the north and east parts of the winter wheat belt while harvest should build elsewhere, with heat expected to help push things along to the west with harvest spreading into south-central Kansas with north of I-70 not expected until the end of next week. The dollar is testing 96 on the index with the sharp pullback after the Fed Statement. Black Sea-area weather remains mixed with world values soft. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in corn values, and reduced quality may increase feeding on that front. On the July Kansas City chart, support is the 100-day at $4.51 with resistance again the 20-day at 4.59, which we are right at overnight. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 06/21 12:00
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 06/21 12:00 Sharp Losses Develop Across Livestock Futures Livestock futures posted triple-digit losses as nearby contracts broke through short-term support levels. Additional liquidation is expected through the end of the week. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst General Comments Sharp losses developed in all livestock trade Friday morning with nearby lean hog futures posting limit losses of $3 per cwt. Late-morning buying developed, with live cattle futures currently mixed as traders cover short positions in front of the weekend break, and afternoon cattle on feed report. Corn futures are lower in light trade. July corn futures are 1 cent lower. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. Dow Jones is 40 points higher with NASDAQ down 17 points. LIVE CATTLE: Sharp losses Friday morning created additional market pressure through the entire complex, allowing nearby contracts to break through support levels during morning trade. Limited follow-through selling late Friday has sparked short covering in deferred contracts. This may add increased underlying stability through the end of the week with traders trying to adjust positions following sharp market swings during the last couple of weeks. Market closes at current price levels would hold prices above short-term support levels and maintain the sideways trading range seen over the last couple of months. Traders are also starting to adjust to the upcoming cattle on feed report. With light to moderate cattle on feed increases expected, markets are not expected to show significant market shifts. Cash cattle interest remains sluggish with limited bids redeveloping at the lower end of range Thursday. Live bids of $109 to $110 live are seen and $178 dressed. It is uncertain if additional trade will develop before the weekend. If trade does develop, feeders may wait until after the cattle on feed report before pulling the trigger on extra cattle sales for the week, otherwise holding off until next week before selling into this lower market trend. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $0.46 lower (select) and down $0.72 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 52 total loads reported (18 loads of choice cuts, 16 loads of select cuts, 7 loads of trimmings, 11 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: Follow-through pressure continues to develop in feeder cattle trade. This may add increased underlying weakness through the end of the week. Although prices remain lower Friday, markets have pulled off session lows with August futures now holding narrow losses. Pre-report adjustments are developing midmorning Friday as traders are focusing on reduced cattle placements in May, compared to year-ago levels. Grain trade has stabilized, but this is still leaving concern about overall production costs and feed supply levels through the next year. LEAN HOGS: Limit losses have developed across nearby lean hog trade following active selling over the last two trading sessions. The most recent pressure has broken through short-term support levels established last week, with futures trading at three-month lows. There is expected to be some additional underlying pressure as traders search for technical support through the end of June. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $0.64 at $74.08 per cwt with the range from $66 to $76 on 5,191 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork values shifted lower following firm pressure in most primal cuts. Pork cutouts fell $0.36 per cwt at $75.84 per cwt with 142 loads traded. Lean hog index for 6/19 is $79.55, up 0.06, with a projected two-day index is $79.14, down 0.41. Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com (BAS) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 06/21 14:02
DTN Closing Grain Comments 06/21 14:02 Grains Fall Back; Higher Temps Ahead July corn dropped 7 3/4 cents, July soybeans were down 12 3/4 cents and all three wheats were lower with drier weather and higher temperatures expected to help row-crop conditions, starting next week. The September U.S. dollar index is trading at its lowest price in three months, but is of no immediate help to Friday's grain prices.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 06/21 15:30
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 06/21/19
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 319 WEEK TO DATE: 18,055
STEERS 208 108.00-108.00 108.00-108.00 108.00
HEIFERS No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 1,989 WEEK TO DATE: 28,030
STEERS 884 176.00-181.00 176.00-181.00 179.06
HEIFERS 290 176.00-177.00 176.00-177.00 176.86
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 8,834
STEERS No reportable trade
HEIFERS No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS No reportable trade
HEIFERS No reportable trade
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 2,358 WEEK TO DATE: 29,370
STEERS 623 176.00-182.00 176.00-182.00 177.85
HEIFERS 312 176.00-178.00 176.00-178.00 176.27
COMMENTS: Just a little cleanup trade reported today.
5-AREA LV STR AVE PR&WT: $110.11(1373) HIDE&OFFAL: $8.37 +0.05
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED $172.20 $155.47 101,282
BOX BASED $207.82 $187.55 46,282
AVE INDEX $190.01 -1.96 $171.51 -2.47 147,564
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$219.82 -0.90 $199.55 -1.93
36.80 LDS CH CUTS / 36.60 LDS SEL CUTS / 9.62 LDS TRIM / 15.98 LDS GROUND
BOXED BEEF TREND: Lower on light demand & moderate offerings
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 06/14 $218.15 -0.47
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $175.22 +0.41
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 37.96 lds / Modly to shrply lr on lt dem & mod offers
90% TRIM: 06 lds: Wtd Avg $224.71 / Firm to slightly higher
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 118(600) WK AGO 118(603) YR AGO 118(590) MIX: THU SH96/CB25
SAT 62(662) WK AGO 62(665) YR AGO 68(658)
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 06/08/19 4,557 8,226
Week Ending: 06/01/19 3,830 7,878
Change from prev week: +727 +348
DTN Chart Technical Points 06/21 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 06/21 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 6/21/19 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT JUL 526.00 526.56 529.33 517.32 477.37 58.35 60.04 58.22 30 40 75 85 CBTWT SEP 530.75 531.19 533.42 522.53 484.09 58.38 59.99 58.12 31 41 75 84 KC WT JUL 452.50 458.94 464.00 463.31 433.41 45.73 50.15 51.04 15 29 54 63 KC WT SEP 464.50 470.06 475.92 475.47 444.67 45.80 50.29 51.18 15 27 54 63 MN WT JUL 536.00 542.00 554.67 557.19 537.06 33.06 41.40 46.47 2 7 32 60 MN WT SEP 544.00 549.19 562.08 565.39 545.51 32.56 41.06 46.34 3 7 29 57 CORN JUL 442.25 445.75 443.39 432.71 396.38 59.20 62.19 62.28 34 49 78 85 CORN SEP 447.50 451.00 449.56 440.32 404.33 57.80 61.08 61.84 31 47 78 86 CORN DEC 453.50 457.69 457.11 448.43 413.57 56.42 60.22 61.67 29 47 80 88 OATS JUL 279.00 286.44 294.97 299.69 294.29 28.41 36.16 44.60 5 7 9 24 OATS SEP 275.25 283.19 289.67 290.11 281.55 30.82 39.10 46.94 21 22 29 50 BEANS JUL 902.75 908.75 896.64 884.58 859.43 60.84 60.15 55.01 59 73 89 90 BEANS AUG 908.50 915.00 903.08 891.14 865.87 60.26 59.77 54.88 57 73 89 90 BEANS SEP 914.75 921.50 909.89 898.10 872.11 59.94 59.65 55.00 55 72 89 90 S MEAL JUL 315.60 319.38 320.10 319.41 307.16 47.64 51.27 52.29 30 45 76 80 S MEAL AUG 317.00 320.73 321.40 320.74 308.53 47.72 51.31 52.30 29 45 77 80 B OIL JUL 28.44 28.43 28.03 27.78 27.61 63.06 59.14 52.43 82 85 90 80 B OIL AUG 28.57 28.57 28.17 27.91 27.75 63.17 59.22 52.41 82 85 90 80 CATTLE JUN 106.55 108.17 108.92 108.75 111.53 31.77 34.63 36.96 7 22 29 38 CATTLE AUG 102.23 104.07 104.77 104.71 108.11 31.81 34.21 36.33 13 31 29 35 FEEDER AUG 133.68 135.54 136.31 137.09 143.44 32.13 34.22 36.58 28 42 29 32 FEEDER SEP 134.05 136.01 136.68 137.45 144.21 31.23 33.12 35.55 29 44 24 26 HOGS JUL 76.25 79.65 81.68 83.85 89.21 22.37 26.93 35.43 7 18 7 8 HOGS AUG 77.90 80.88 81.63 83.81 90.01 27.48 30.17 36.84 28 42 11 11 COTTON JUL 61.19 63.78 65.08 66.64 69.89 18.38 24.42 31.77 15 15 10 18 COTTON OCT 64.73 65.88 66.24 66.93 69.79 32.55 34.47 36.68 9 19 27 36 RICE JUL 11.30 11.36 11.52 11.60 11.18 37.27 44.57 51.33 27 25 36 58 RICE SEP 11.64 11.70 11.83 11.84 11.35 42.23 49.36 55.43 29 33 59 80
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 06/21 16:14
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 06/21 16:14 Lean Hogs Close Limit Lower July through October lean hog futures closed $3 per cwt lower Friday. Losses were seen throughout the rest of livestock trade, as well, leading to concern of additional pressure early next week. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Lean hog futures closed down the $3-per-cwt limit Friday, which will trigger expanded limits Monday. Cattle futures also fell late Friday, breaking through short-term support. From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Jun LC off $2.23; Aug LC off $2.05; Aug FC off $1.85; Sep FC off $1.75; Jul LH off $5.10; Aug LH off $2.72. Cash cattle trade appears to be done for the week following light-to-moderate trade Thursday. A few scattered bids were seen at $109 to $110 per cwt live basis and $178 dressed, but the lack of interest at the lower prices is likely to keep most cattle on showlists until next week. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was $0.69 lower ($65-$76, weighted average $74.03) on 8,216 head sold. Corn futures eroded Friday afternoon with July down 7 3/4 cents per bushel. The Dow Jones Index was 34 points lower with the NASDAQ down 19 points.
