US Direct Feeder Pigs 10/14
DTN Early Word Grains 10/18 05:55
DTN Early Word Grains 10/18 05:55 Grain Mixed as Harvest Resumes into Weekend December corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel, November soybeans are up 1 1/4 cents, and December K.C. wheat is down 2 1/2 cents. By Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst 6:00 a.m. CME Globex: December corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel, November soybeans are up 1 1/4 cents, and December K.C. wheat is down 2 1/2 cents. CME Globex Recap: Equity markets are mostly lower overnight with the big news being China's economy expanding at the slowest pace in about 30 years at 6% in the third quarter vs. a year earlier. Economists were expecting growth of 6.1% but missed expectations due to manufacturing and investment sentiment. The other big headline this week was a deal on Brexit between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the European Union with a monumental vote expected in Parliament on Saturday. A passing vote could see the drama which began back in 2016 finally sees resolution. Grains are mostly lower with only soybeans and meal posting overnight gains. Market drivers remain the same with bushels lost in the winter storm and a lack of harvest progress supportive while demand news remains mostly bearish. On Thursday, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said China's $40-50 billion in agriculture purchases would "depend in part on private companies and market conditions." Not exactly the answer our markets are looking for, or the tone of the deal set forth by the President last week. Export sales are delayed until later Friday morning and should help set the early tone. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 23.90 at 27,025.88 and the S&P 500 up 8.26 at 2,989.69 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 1.757%. Early Friday, the December DJIA futures are down 17 points. Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 40.82 (0.18%) and China's Shanghai Composite down 39.19 points (-1.32%). European markets are lower with London's FTSE 100 down 17.51 points (-0.24%), Germany's DAX up 0.72 points (0.01%) and France's CAC 40 down 23.82 points (-0.42%). The December Euro is up 0.000 at 1.120 and the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.055 at 97.280. The December 30-Year T-Bond is down 8/32nds, while December gold is down $6.70 at $1,491.60 and November crude oil is up $0.20 at $54.13. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were up 0.41% while soybean meal was up 0.6%.
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 10/18 08:01
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 10/18 08:01 Cash Cattle Trade Remains Elusive It will be another late week of trade in cash cattle markets as both sides remain locked in their respective positions as they head into the end of the week. Concerns of further futures pressure is holding early Friday. By Rick Kment DTN Livestock Analyst Cattle: Steady to Higher Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $139.81 +0.19* Hogs: Higher Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $ 81.05 -1.44** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: Another Friday has arrived and packers and feeders find the need to get down to business once again. So far this week, packer bids have been sluggish to say the least with limited interest shown over the last few days. The bids that have been seen have been pretty well established well below asking prices. Bids in the North developed at $175 per cwt. This is a good $3 to $5 per cwt below asking prices of $178 to $180 per cwt dressed basis in the South and likely to spark some additional uncertainty about the potential to bring strong end-of-the-week cash market support back to the table before both sides call it good for the week. Asking prices in the South remain at $111 to $112 per cwt, but as bids start developing through the day, they will likely be firmly below these levels. Futures trade is expected mixed with limited expectations of renewed support this late in the week. Feeder cattle futures have led the market correction lower Thursday as air had started to become thin above $145 per cwt. Although the case for continued firm longer-term market support remains, the cattle complex has been ripe for a market correction over the last couple of weeks. It is uncertain at this point if Thursday's action will be enough to satisfy sellers in order to spark renewed interest through either live cattle or feeder cattle trade at the end of the week. Friday slaughter runs are expected at 112,000 head.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/18 11:28
DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/18 11:28 Grains Mixed at Midday Soybeans and wheat lead mixed trade at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market is flat to lower with the Dow down 80. The dollar index is 15 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are flat with crude up $0.05. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $2.80. CORN Corn trade is 3 cents lower at midday with range-bound action continuing ahead of the weekend. Fresh bullish news lacking and light harvest pressure is noted. Harvest will remain slow but should show progress through the end of the week before wetter weather returns to the east with beans getting more attention this week. Ethanol futures are flat at midday keeping margins stable. Basis remains flat to weaker with anticipation of more inbound bushels soon. South American corn planting but is running behind normal with mixed weather views at this early juncture in the Southern Hemisphere growing season. The weekly export sales were soft at 368,800 metric tons. On the December contract support is at the 20-day moving average at $3.86 1/2; the market is flirting with the $3.92 10-day here at midday. Chart resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band at 4.02. SOYBEANS Soybeans are 4 to 6 cents higher at midday gaining back some of the noted long profit-taking losses seen earlier this week. Meal is $2.50 higher with soybean oil up 12 points. The soybean market is overbought and seeing consolidation after the September into October strength with the momentum into Monday following the friendly USDA report last week. Crush margins remain solidly positive. The ral has gained slightly against the dollar this week. Bean basis should see pressure as combines continue to roll. South America should make more progress this week and into the second half of the months with some weather issues remaining and planting pace solidly behind. The weekly export sales were strong at 1.6 million metric tons, 152,900 of meal, and 4,000 pounds of oil. On the November chart, support is the 10-day at $9.28 with the upper Bollinger Band at $9.49 as resistance. WHEAT Wheat trade is 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher with light selling overnight after new highs were scored for the move on the back of Chicago strength. The Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 97 cents with trade hitting new highs again. Remaining spring wheat will likely not be cut at this point. The corn/HRW spread has widened back to 38 cents from 13 cents at the recent low, working wheat back out of rations. Export action continues to be dominated by Black Sea origin with more sales to Egypt and neighboring countries this week. The weekly export sales remained in the recent range at 395,100 metric tons. The December Kansas City chart support is the 10-day at $4.18 with the 100-day at 4.40 the next level up with the upper Bollinger Band right at overnight trade at $4.31. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (CZ) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/18 12:09
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/18 12:09 Market Correction Livestock markets continue to scale lower and lower and in all three cattle charts it's becoming more apparent that the wondered-about correction has arrived. By ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst General Comments Remember the Johnny Cash song, Ring of Fire? Well today's market (though it could be much worse) somewhat feels like that, "I went down, down, down, and the flames went higher, and it burns, burns, burns, the ring of fire, the ring of fire." October live cattle are down $2.62, December live cattle are down $1.65, November feeder cattle are down $2.50 and December lean hogs are down $1.40. Given the fact that none of the markets are limit down, we clearly know and understand that things could be worse and that this correction was anticipated. BUT ... it never is a rosy sight to see the markets bleeding lower on Friday when there still is a slug of fat cattle to sell and there was early morning confirmation of massive pork sales. December corn is down 3 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 206.62 points and NASDAQ is down 104.40 points LIVE CATTLE Live cattle contracts all showing significant losses Friday morning with the spot October contract showing the biggest loss, down $2.60 at $109.80 and December live cattle are down $1.62 at $112.72. As mentioned earlier, after getting used to higher and higher prices, a correction doesn't 'feel good' and it's chipping away at current prices stings. However, it is positive to be getting this well-known and much-anticipated correction out of the way so that the market can establish a stable and steady position hopefully long before the upcoming 2020 calendar arrives. A light trade is being reported in parts of the South at $108, steady to $1.00 lower than the bulk of last week's trade. A few deals set for delayed delivery have been reported in Eastern Nebraska at $173 (set for the weeks of November 4 and November 11). Asking prices are around $112 in the South, and $178 to $180 in the North. Midday boxed beef cutouts are mixed: choice down $0.23 ($217.88) and select up $1.51 ($194.11). Friday's offering of boxed beef comes to 47 loads (22.82 lads of choice cuts, 14.17 loads of select cuts, no loads of trim and 10.38 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE Feeder cattle markets have taken Friday's slug the hardest. Feeder markets range anywhere from $1.45 to $2.42 lower. Sale barn markets as of Thursday have been able to rally higher prices and attract buyers to come bids on long runs of calves. Friday's weakening board could begin to affect those prices though. November feeder cattle prices are down $2.27 at $142.05. LEAN HOGS Unable to be inspired by the notice of higher net sales early Friday morning, which made a new marketing-year high, lean hog prices still trail downward. Increased purchases came from Mexico 132,400 metric tons, China 94,000mt, Japan 46,400mt, South Korea 9,900mt, and Canada 5,800mt. The lean hog sector is down, but not nearly as much as the live cattle board and feeder cattle board. December lean hogs are down $1.37 at $66.77 and all other contracts range $0.05 to $1.02 lower except for February 2021, which is up $0.05. The projected lean hog index for 10/16/19 is up $0.96 at $64.90, and the actual for 10/15/19 came to $63.94 up $1.02. Prices are down on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.75 with a weighted average of $57.05, ranging from $55.00 to $60.00 on 4,400 head sold and a five-day rolling average of $57.79. Pork cutouts totaled 129.73 loads with 117.02 loads of pork cuts and 12.72 loads of trim. Pork cutouts values are up $0.16 at $76.44. ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com (BAS) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 10/18 13:54
DTN Closing Grain Comments 10/18 13:54 Grains Finish Week Mixed; U.S. Dollar Lower Friday finished with modest gains in soybeans and winter wheat, while corn and spring wheat closed lower. Chicago wheat posted the biggest gain among grain contracts this week with some help from a 1% drop in the U.S. dollar index.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 10/18 15:35
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 10/18/19
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 6,332 WEEK TO DATE: 6,332
STEERS LIVE FOB
3,099 108.00-108.00 108.00-108.00 108.00
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
2,497 108.00-108.00 108.00-108.00 108.00
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 17,788 WEEK TO DATE: 21,994
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
10,382 170.00-175.00 173.00-175.00 173.46
STEERS DRESSED FOB
1,018 174.00-174.00 174.00-174.00 174.00
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
2,329 173.00-175.00 173.00-175.00 173.38
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
240 173.00-173.00 173.00-173.00 173.00
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 2,741 WEEK TO DATE: 2,741
STEERS LIVE FOB
1,017 108.00-108.00 108.00-108.00 108.00
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
583 108.00-108.00 108.00-108.00 108.00
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 9,483 WEEK TO DATE: 15,267
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
1,165 173.00-176.00 173.00-175.00 173.88
STEERS DRESSED FOB
35 170.00-170.00 170.00-170.00 170.00
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
493 173.00-175.00 173.00-175.00 173.16
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: A light to moderate trade was reported in the North with
dressed deals at mostly $173, essentially $1 higher than last week's
weighted average basis Nebraska. Southern live business was at $108, steady
to $1 lower than the bulk of last week's trade.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $111.17(1469) HIDE&OFFAL: $8.83 Unchg
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED $167.72 $142.67 65,524
BOX BASED $206.04 $181.04 47,948
AVE INDEX $186.88 +0.07 $161.85 +0.33 113,472
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$218.04 -0.07 $193.04 +0.44
45.66 LDS CH CUTS / 21.58 LDS SEL CUTS / 13.24 LDS TRIM / 16.46 LDS GROUND
BOXED BEEF TREND: Stdy/frm on lt-mod dem & offers
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 10/11 $209.49 +0.14
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $169.85 -2.49
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 40.32 lds / Unevenly stdy on lt-mod dem & mod offers
90% TRIM: 03 lds: Wtd Avg $232.74 / Weak to lower
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 110(572) WK AGO 117(584) YR AGO 116(587) MIX: THU SH88/CB23
SAT 70(642) WK AGO 61(645) YR AGO 45(632)
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 10/05/19 1,267 9,496
Week Ending: 09/28/19 609 8,535
Change from prev week: +658 +961
DTN Chart Technical Points 10/18 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 10/18 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 10/18/19 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT DEC 532.25 519.50 510.06 499.51 485.18 78.51 72.61 61.51 95 88 92 86 CBTWT MAR 537.00 524.69 516.00 505.92 491.48 78.30 72.50 61.30 96 89 93 87 KC WT DEC 433.75 427.81 420.36 413.74 406.48 70.32 64.98 54.79 93 88 91 80 KC WT MAR 446.00 440.50 433.19 426.99 420.53 70.62 64.89 54.14 95 91 93 81 MN WT DEC 544.50 548.13 545.89 543.00 523.17 53.92 55.86 53.97 65 75 78 76 MN WT MAR 558.25 561.94 559.72 556.71 537.03 53.92 55.96 54.07 65 75 81 79 CORN DEC 391.00 392.69 392.94 387.97 375.85 53.52 54.30 50.89 51 59 75 79 CORN MAR 402.75 404.25 403.97 399.46 387.73 54.30 54.86 51.13 58 65 78 81 CORN MAY 409.50 410.63 409.69 405.32 395.00 55.69 55.68 51.37 64 69 80 81 OATS DEC 294.25 298.00 292.64 285.63 277.92 59.82 60.83 58.42 53 67 79 80 OATS MAR 290.50 293.94 290.33 285.90 279.86 56.16 57.76 56.42 39 62 76 73 BEANS NOV 934.00 931.88 930.19 917.50 892.36 65.96 64.42 58.14 35 47 81 85 BEANS JAN 947.50 945.88 944.42 931.60 906.21 65.75 64.55 58.38 34 46 81 86 BEANS MAR 959.25 957.50 955.81 942.78 918.34 68.09 66.22 59.16 40 51 84 87 S MEAL DEC 308.50 306.97 308.22 304.81 300.40 57.72 56.76 52.70 28 28 68 76 S MEAL JAN 311.20 309.60 310.72 307.04 302.28 58.67 57.59 53.24 28 29 71 78 B OIL DEC 30.36 30.39 30.09 29.72 29.33 68.53 63.94 57.74 64 67 80 74 B OIL JAN 30.60 30.63 30.33 29.96 29.56 68.56 64.09 57.85 64 67 80 75 CATTLE OCT 110.48 111.56 110.19 107.79 102.52 67.32 68.27 60.45 79 90 95 97 CATTLE DEC 113.63 113.83 112.71 111.43 107.14 72.37 69.12 59.06 87 90 96 95 FEEDER OCT 143.50 144.48 144.27 143.32 137.93 54.35 57.90 55.03 38 54 81 87 FEEDER NOV 142.85 144.79 144.35 142.94 137.32 51.01 56.03 54.50 42 64 84 89 HOGS DEC 67.95 69.71 69.21 69.21 66.40 46.91 49.17 49.28 33 56 67 68 HOGS FEB 77.48 78.28 76.98 76.37 73.55 56.20 55.70 52.89 58 75 87 84 COTTON DEC 65.16 64.56 63.24 62.17 60.66 71.03 67.41 58.18 77 64 71 66 COTTON MAR 65.81 65.19 63.92 62.87 61.35 72.48 68.59 58.73 80 68 74 69 RICE NOV 11.91 11.94 11.97 11.91 11.88 47.32 48.51 50.43 47 44 44 47 RICE JAN 12.20 12.23 12.25 12.18 12.10 49.12 50.40 51.95 45 44 54 56
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 10/18 16:04
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 10/18 16:04 Minor Correction for Livestock Friday Friday's close was more gracious than the noon hour assumed. Though all livestock contracts closed lower than their initial open, the markets were able to muster up some lost support and close on only a modest correction. By ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Welcoming a soft correction, livestock markets closed lower. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.94 with a weighted average of $56.86. December corn is down 3 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 255.68 points and NASDAQ is down 67.31 points. From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $1.03, December live cattle up $1.47; October feeder cattle down $0.60, November feeder cattle down $1.40; December lean hogs down $1.65 and February lean hogs up $0.43
