US Direct Feeder Pigs 09/03
DTN Closing Grain Comments 09/30 14:06
DTN Closing Grain Comments 09/30 14:06 USDA Reports Send Corn and Wheat Higher, But Soybeans Fall to New Low December corn closed up 8 cents and all three U.S. wheats posted double-digit gains after USDA estimated tighter supply levels of both crops than were expected. November soybeans fell 46 cents to a new one-month low after Sept. 1 soybean stocks came in 34 mb higher than USDA's September estimate, likely an over-reaction of noncommercial selling. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: December corn closed up 8 cents and July corn was up 5 3/4 cents. November soybeans closed down 46 cents and July soybeans were down 36 1/2 cents. December KC wheat closed up 24 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 25 1/4 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was up 16 cents. The December U.S. Dollar Index is trading down 0.11 at 112.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 251.0 points at 28,974.61. December gold is up $3.80 at $1,672.40, December silver is up $0.38 at $19.09 and December copper is down $0.0145. November crude oil is down $1.67 at $79.56, November heating oil is down $0.0660, November RBOB gasoline is down $0.0319 and November natural gas is down $0.069.
DTN Early Word Grains 10/03 05:47
DTN Early Word Grains 10/03 05:47 Wheat, Corn Higher Again After USDA's Bullish Reports December corn was up 6 cents, November soybeans were up 1 cent and December KC wheat was up 12 cents Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst EARLY GLOBEX PRICES: December corn was up 6 cents, November soybeans were up 1 cent and December KC wheat was up 12 cents CME GLOBEX RECAP: Early Monday, stock futures in the U.S. were starting a little higher, while European stocks were lower. The stock price of the Swiss Bank, Credit Suisse, is lower early Monday with increased negative attention on debt levels in this increasingly difficult economic environment. Manufacturing indices in Europe showed contraction in September and the U.S. index is due out at 9 a.m. CDT. USDA's weekly report of export inspections is due out at 10 a.m. and may show signs of reduced barge traffic along the Lower Mississippi River where water levels are low and the Climate Prediction Centered recently predicted increased drought in October. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Friday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 500.10 at 28,725.51 and the S&P 500 down 54.85 at 3,585.62, while the 10-Year Treasury yield increased to 3.80%, down from the highest yield in 12 years. Early Monday, December Dow Jones futures are trading up 100 points. Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 index up 1.077% and China's Shanghai Composite Index closed for the week. European markets are lower with the spot futures of the London FTSE 100 trading down 1.21%, spot futures of Germany's DAX trading down 1.18% and spot futures of France's CAC Index trading down 1.29%. The December euro is steady at $.9862. The December U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.05 at 112.04. The December 30-year T-bond is up 10/32nds, while December gold is down $0.90 at $1,671.10 and November crude oil is up $3.63 at $83.12. There are no quotes from China's Dalian exchange this week due to a national holiday. December Malaysian palm oil is trading up 1.1%.
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 10/03 06:15
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 10/03 06:15 Outside Markets Influence Trading Activity Live cattle futures fell back Friday to close at the low end of the range for the week. Feeder cattle took a bath, closing at a new low for the recent downtrend. Hog futures were able to close higher except for front-month October as it could not shake the weakness of cash. Robin Schmahl DTN Contributing Analyst Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $181.86 -$1.08* Hogs: Steady Futures: Higher Lean Equiv: $105.43 -$1.45** *Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.) ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue. GENERAL COMMENTS: Cattle closed lower to end the quarter, succumbing to the pressures of the lower stock market and a bullish quarterly stocks report for corn. Cash cattle traded earlier in the week with no further change seen to close the week. The negative implications of the Cattle on Feed report the week before, the weakness of the stock market, and the bullish quarterly stocks report for corn impacted the market, moving prices to the lower end of the trading range established for the week in the October live cattle contract. With the concern over demand due to economic concerns and the continued weakness of boxed beef, cash cattle are not expected to see much, if any, upside this week. Boxed beef was mixed, the choice down $2.33 and select up $0.35. Feeder cattle saw substantial pressure closely related to the bullish Quarterly Grain Stocks report. October futures made a new low for the current trend, keeping the market in a solid downtrend.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/03 10:52
DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/03 10:52 Corn Futures Lower at Midday; Soybeans Higher; Wheat Mixed Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 6 to 7 cents higher; wheat futures are narrowly mixed. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 6 to 7 cents higher; wheat futures are narrowly mixed. The U.S. stock market is firmer with the DOW up 660 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 60 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude up 3.20, and natural gas is off .35. Livestock trade is mostly stronger with cattle leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 28.00. CORN: Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade working back to the middle of the range after the soft close Friday with harvest pressure and near-term demand to remain in focus this week along with outside markets with early strength fading. The stocks report was friendly with 1.38 billion bushels (bb) on hand versus 1.512 bb expected. Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with warmer-than-normal temps over the next couple of weeks to keep harvest moving along. Progress on the weekly report is likely to remain just behind average along with maturity and conditions remaining steady. The export wire will need to show more life soon with nothing hitting last week. Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 661,658 metric tons (mt) with river issues remaining notable for shipping. Ethanol margins will likely chop along with softer driving demand and refinery disruptions to keep upside limited for now. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to harvest footing everywhere, and how aggressively the west will bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest with notable strength already while intra-month spreads remain off the highs. On the December chart, trade is just below the 20-day moving average at $6.78 and the recent high at $6.95 above that with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.59 as further support. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 6 to 7 cents higher with trade working to establish support after the washout Friday with continued harvest progress in the U.S., and planting progress in South America as demand concerns continue to linger. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 155 to 175 points higher. The stocks report showed 274 million bushels (mb) on hand versus 242 mb expected. South America has early planting underway with late demand picking up ahead of the U.S. export window with the dollar reversal needing to hold with Brazil in better shape than Argentina early on with varied short-term rain potential. Basis will continue to shift towards harvest footing with trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up into the end of the month with some further near-term basis pressure expected into October along with intramonth spread weakness adding carry in recent days. The daily wire saw some life with 110,000 mt booked by unknown, increasing the demand concerns short term. Export inspections were disappointing at 575,220 mt. Weekly crop progress is expected to show harvest near the five-year average, and steady conditions. On the November soybean chart, trade has the 20-day moving average at $14.28 as resistance well above the market, with the lower Bollinger band at $13.54 as support. WHEAT: Wheat futures are narrowly mixed with trade working to consolidate at the higher end of the range as trade waits for Northern Hemisphere crop planting and development along with further Black Sea developments to set direction with a test of the highs this morning before action faded. Wheat stocks were 1.78 bb versus 1.776 bb expected keeping support in place. The Plains look dry short term, but enough recent rains fell in some areas to keep planting moving forward with just above average progress expected with spring harvest likely wrapped up. MATIF wheat remains near the upper end of the range with choppy action to start the week backing off the highs as well. Weekly export inspections were solid at 667,577 mt. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day moving average at $9.43, and the fresh high at $10.09 as resistance which we faded from this morning. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/03 11:32
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/03 11:32 Boxed Beef Prices Print Higher at Midday It was a pleasant surprise to see the livestock complex trade higher at Monday's dawn, but it was even more supportive to see that boxed beef prices are higher at midday. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: The livestock complex is off to a strong start for the week as the three markets (live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hogs) all see higher prices, and even though the week is young, meat demand is off to a stronger start too. December corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 595.64 points. LIVE CATTLE: The live cattle market is off to a strong start as the market not only sees moderate support technically, but the market was also surprised to see midday boxed beef prices print higher. October live cattle are up $1.35 at $144.62, December live cattle are up $0.82 at $147.85 and February live cattle are up $0.92 at $151.57. Given that the market appears to have found a bottom last week, higher trade isn't out of the question so long as traders stay engaged and the market isn't cut short with any worse news about our economy. The cash cattle market is expected to trade at least steady this week, if not a little higher ever given that showlists are current and that packers are continuing to want to buy week in and week out to avoid becoming short bought when supplies becoming inherently thinner. Showlists appear to be lighter in all feeding regions. Last week, Northern dressed sales have had a range of $225.60 to $233, mostly $228, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle have been marked at $143, which is fully steady with last week's weighted averages. Last week's negotiated cash cattle traded totaled 100,258 head. Of that, 71% (71,469 head) were committed for the nearby delivery while the remaining 28% (28,789 head) were committed for the deferred delivery. Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.38 ($245.13) and select up $1.70 ($221.83) with a movement of 54 loads (31.58 loads of choice, 7.57 loads of select, 6.94 loads of trim and 8.00 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $23.30. FEEDER CATTLE: With the corn complex trending mostly steady and the live cattle market lending feeders support, the feeder cattle contracts are trading modestly higher into Monday's afternoon. October feeders are up $0.85 at $175.02, November feeders are up $0.75 at $175.37 and January feeders are up $0.82 at $176.50. The market appears to have developed a new support plane around $174.50 in the November contract and with no nearby concerns of resistance, the market has all the potential in the world to trade higher. Higher corn prices and any more deterioration in on our economy will likely weaken feeder cattle prices, but stronger fat cattle trade and a higher tone in the live cattle contracts will add support. LEAN HOGS: The lean hog complex is running into Monday's afternoon fully higher as the market believes that a support plane was established in last week's market. Last week the market was fanned higher on Friday thanks to supportive Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report and strong export report than came throughout Thursday's trade. The market's biggest concern moving forward will continue to be demand, which packers are hoping will come from both domestic and foreign markets. Late last week slaughter speeds dipped slightly, which will also be a factor that needs to continue to be monitored. October lean hogs are up $0.52 at $89.75, December lean hogs are up $1.65 at $77.87 and February lean hogs are up $0.82 at $80.25. The projected lean hog index for Sept. 30 is down $0.58 at $94.33, and the actual index for Sept. 29 is down $0.23 at $94.91. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.41 with a weighted average of $82.67, ranging from $79.00 to $97.50 on 3,150 head and a five-day rolling average of $88.12. Pork cutouts total 163.57 loads with 136.09 loads of pork cuts and 27.48 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $5.39, $102.98. ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Chart Technical Points 10/03 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 10/03 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 10/03/22 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT DEC 912.00 908.25 895.28 876.47 833.60 60.48 58.82 53.69 68 65 77 72 CBTWT MAR 925.00 920.00 907.39 890.07 848.78 60.95 59.06 53.86 69 65 77 72 KC WT DEC 988.75 980.75 965.86 947.61 903.02 63.39 60.91 54.72 73 68 80 74 KC WT MAR 985.50 976.75 962.19 945.51 903.65 63.88 60.99 54.58 73 69 81 74 MN WT DEC 980.00 975.13 962.92 946.26 921.86 62.71 59.66 52.74 71 68 80 73 MN WT MAR 985.75 979.50 967.72 952.99 932.01 63.09 59.61 52.54 72 68 80 73 CORN DEC 680.75 674.56 675.83 679.56 653.44 56.50 56.34 54.38 45 34 40 42 CORN MAR 687.50 681.00 681.42 684.74 659.53 57.66 57.04 54.71 47 36 43 44 CORN MAY 688.00 681.81 682.17 685.32 661.27 57.60 56.98 54.65 48 37 42 43 OATS DEC 400.50 387.81 392.17 395.29 400.48 55.06 51.26 45.89 59 36 35 38 OATS MAR 404.50 391.44 395.94 398.89 403.32 55.45 51.65 46.31 64 37 31 35 BEANS NOV1374.001389.561413.501432.321423.52 32.81 39.23 45.27 15 16 17 29 BEANS JAN1384.001399.061420.941438.881429.82 33.86 39.89 45.59 17 18 19 31 BEANS MAR1391.751405.131424.921441.261431.51 35.00 40.71 46.15 19 19 20 33 S MEAL OCT 405.60 409.93 426.54 428.57 421.26 33.50 40.27 46.76 5 4 13 33 S MEAL DEC 405.30 407.05 416.70 420.38 415.23 36.79 42.60 47.74 10 6 13 29 B OIL OCT 66.88 66.31 66.81 67.19 66.37 50.26 50.56 50.72 57 43 46 51 B OIL DEC 63.34 62.73 63.43 64.35 64.80 47.45 47.53 48.28 50 38 25 29 CATTLE OCT 144.33 143.69 144.09 144.72 144.30 50.28 50.37 51.62 47 32 27 33 CATTLE DEC 148.02 147.28 148.00 149.38 149.76 44.64 44.87 47.83 54 35 21 17 FEEDER OCT 175.53 175.51 176.75 179.46 183.10 36.86 37.71 42.68 31 26 9 8 FEEDER NOV 176.05 175.94 177.08 180.38 184.43 35.83 36.11 41.28 39 31 10 8 HOGS OCT 88.78 89.21 90.79 92.78 94.20 31.02 36.71 42.86 19 16 8 19 HOGS DEC 77.73 76.38 79.56 82.64 84.86 33.06 34.67 39.22 15 8 6 11 COTTON OCT 92.14 90.73 92.43 98.38 106.71 38.30 37.43 40.38 47 24 8 4 COTTON DEC 84.20 85.80 89.52 95.39 102.52 20.11 26.52 36.57 11 11 5 5 RICE NOV 16.94 17.20 17.32 17.50 17.43 24.22 33.88 44.63 13 25 26 39 RICE JAN 17.27 17.52 17.61 17.78 17.66 25.58 35.27 45.90 24 38 33 45
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 10/03 16:16
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 10/03 16:16 Livestock See Support Through Closing Monday It was a stimulating day for the livestock complex as the contracts closed higher, which was needed for the market's overall morale. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: It was a refreshing day for the livestock complex as the market kept its steam through closing and saw higher closes for pork and beef too. Heading into Tuesday's market, feeders will be closely watching the corn complex and feedlots will be looking for packer interest to potentially develop. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.41 with a weighted average of $82.67 on 3,150 head. December corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 765.38 points.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 10/03 16:18
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 10/03/22
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 354 WEEK TO DATE: 354
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
STEERS DRESSED FOB
203 230.00-230.00 230.00-230.00 230.00
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
151 230.00-230.00 230.00-230.00 230.00
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NO COMP WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
NA due to confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
NA due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
NA due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
NA due to confidentiality
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 210 WEEK TO DATE: 210
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable dressed trade
STEERS DRESSED FOB
210 229.00-229.00 229.00-229.00 229.00
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable dressed trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable dressed trade
COMMENTS: It was a typical Monday for the cash cattle market as very
little interest developed from packers. Southern feedlots are asking $145 and
the North has yet to disclose what their early asking prices will be. With
boxed beef prices closing higher, feedlots will likely price cattle higher as
well.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $146.75(1509) HIDE&OFFAL: $14.78 Dn .09
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) HEAD
SUPPLY (Live) $212.95 $188.22 84,653
DEMAND (Box) $233.94 $209.31 50,705
INDEX VALUE $223.44 +1.00 $198.76 +0.26 135,358
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$244.94 +2.19 $221.31 +1.18
65.23 LDS CH CUTS / 21.20 LDS SEL CUTS / 11.48 LDS TRIM / 17.60 LDS GROUND
DAILY CHOICE/SELECT SPREAD $24.63 TOTAL LOAD COUNT 116
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 09/30 $248.12 -2.39
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $210.94 +0.94
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 91.27 lds / Unevnly stdy on lgt-mod dem & mod offers
90% TRIM: 34 lds: Wtd Avg: $264.18 / Unevenly steady
FI KILL(WTD) MON 127 WK AGO 125 YR AGO 120 MIX: FRI SH89/CB2
SAT SH34/CB8
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
WK ENDING FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 09/17/22 1,541 8,443
Week Ending: 09/10/22 1,622 7,830
Change from prev week: -81 +613
